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By Mathew Carr May 12, 2021 — LONDON: Germany detailed allowed emissions sector by sector as it published its new, more-ambitious planned climate law yesterday. Energy industry emissions to plunge 61% in the decade through 2030; transport emissions to drop 43% in the same period, in a brutally clear signal for lower crude oil demand, according to the data. Germany now to become climate neutral by 2045 instead of 2050 and has outlined a path to achieve this with binding targets. This is at the heart of the revised Climate Change Act, which the federal cabinet adopted today as recommendedContinue reading “Deutschland veröffentlicht zulässige Emissionen nach Sektoren nach ehrgeizigeren geplanten Gesetzen; Germany Publishes Permitted Emissions by Sector Under More-Ambitious Planned Law (3)”

OPINION By Mathew Carr May 12, 2021 — LONDON: A surge in EU carbon permits has perversely created a risk that Asia will revert to coal-fired power, hampering the climate transition. Higher carbon prices, which traded today (Wednesday) at their highest ever above 55 euros a ton, have boosted demand for natural gas in Europe. That’s because utilities burning gas need about half the carbon permits versus those using coal. (Higher gas prices also tend to boost demand for carbon permits, so the relationship is a little complex — not just one way). The increased gas price in Europe inContinue reading “Rising EU Carbon Prices Push Asia Back Onto Coal; Levels Surge to Yet Another Record (3)”

–U.S. has no “current plans” to do so: state department spokesperson–Palm-oil replacement seen helping save forests around the world By Mathew Carr May 11-14, 2021 — LONDON: UBS, the Swiss bank with a well-regarded team of analysts, sees the U.S. joining China-EU collaboration on climate, creating a global solution to a worldwide problem. “I see, for example, the new joint platform of the EU and China as an open arrangement between two major jurisdictions that the Americans should, and in my view will, join,” said Axel Weber, chairman of the bank, speaking Tuesday at an online UBS climate seminar. RegionalContinue reading “瑞銀希望美國加入歐洲和中國的氣候平台以形成全球解決方案; UBS Sees U.S. Joining Europe and China’s Climate Platform to Form Global Solution (3)”

–Hartree: U.K. carbon market seen tighter than the EU By Mathew Carr May 11, 2021 — LONDON: The U.K. has set a “cost containment price” in its carbon market that’s starting next week at a level that’s effectively about two fifths higher than the market price in Europe. Britain was forced out of EU carbon market, the world’s biggest, this year because of its Brexit vote in 2016. It’s new market begins May 19. “As of 10 May 2021, for the COST CONTAINMENT MECHANISM to be triggered, the average December 2021 futures contract price as traded on the ICE exchange, would needContinue reading “U.K. Sets Carbon Cost Containment Price About 42% Above EU Market (3)”

May 7, 2021 — LONDON: Sorting out a “roadmap” for a 2025 target for climate finance from richer nations is important for climate talks in Glasgow, according to the European Union. Rich countries are currently seen falling short of $100 million a year finance target for developing nations. SO, IS A ROADMAP ENOUGH FOR EMERGING COUNTRIES? KEY COMMENT, from Frans Timmermans, who is leading the European Commission’s work on the European Green Deal and leading international negotiations to strengthen the ambition of other major emitters by 2021: Bearing in mind that Parties to the Paris Agreement have given themselves until prior to 2025 toContinue reading “Developing Country Finance Map Seen as Possible at Glasgow Climate Talks Later This Year; Is That Enough?”

ANALYSIS SUMMARY – NOT ADVICE By Mathew Carr May 7-9, 2021 — LONDON: The European Union’s plan for a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in 2023 could cause the region’s greenhouse gas permits to double, according to research by Morgan Stanley. The CBAM, if put in place, would require importers to pay the equivalent of the EU carbon price on goods in energy intensive industries as they bring them into the EU. The planned measure is seeking to “encourage” other nations around the world to deploy carbon pricing if they want to trade with the bloc. The most likely formContinue reading “FEATURE: Carbon Border Adjustment Seen Driving Europe’s CO2 Prices MUCH Higher (4)”

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By Mathew Carr May 5, 2021 — LONDON: To ensure the European Union’s policies achieve the region’s required emission cuts, investors will probably need the comfort of clever carbon contracts that protect clean investors. The region’s policies needs to reflect industry’s needs during the transition to climate neutrality, the European Commission said today in an updated plan (see link below). “De-risking of initial investments through tools like Contracts for Difference need to be explored,” it said. CCfD would pay out the difference between the price of EU emissions allowances and the contract price, thus effectively ensuring a guaranteed carbon priceContinue reading “Europe to Consider Innovative Carbon Contracts to Underpin Huge Climate-Related Investment”

–Rich nations need to respect China, which has strong influence over the existing mineral supply chain–Copper is crucial to energy transition (electrification) and its price is surging OPINION by Mathew Carr May 5, 2021 — LONDON: Much stronger climate policy is needed immediately, otherwise the world may not quickly invest enough in mineral projects needed for rapid emission cuts required through 2030. There needs to be a fast and massive jump in spending on the production of minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare-earths or the world’s target to keep temperatures from rising 1.5C was at risk, accordingContinue reading “Higher Carbon Prices Needed to Comfort Renewable-Mineral-Project Investors (3)”

–Oil’s twilight gets closer – see story I wrote on this two years ago in notes–It might not make sense to own a non-electric car by 2030: source OPINION (NOT ADVICE): By Mathew Carr May 3-9, 2021 — LONDON: The outlook for crude oil futures isn’t as rosy as implied by its forward curve. The discount of December 2024 Brent crude contracts to the front month is 13%, so $57.86 a barrel vs $66.82 as of Monday morning (May 3), according to data from ICE Futures Europe (the Dec. 2024 contracted hadn’t traded at the time I looked). Front monthContinue reading “FEATURE: Electric SUVs Mean the Crude Oil Market’s Backwardation is Underdone (3)”

OPINION By Mathew Carr April 30, 2021 — LONDON: Britain’s new post-Brexit carbon market will be fun to trade, and potentially financially dangerous, because of the multiple political risks on the table. When the market officially kicks off in three week’s time, traders bidding in the first auction and buying and selling futures contracts on ICE Futures Europe will have plenty to think about. Initially, prices won’t trade too low because there’s a 22 pound per ton reserve price at auctions. The country also has a separate floor support system with complicates comparisons between the EU and U.K. programs (seeContinue reading “A Different Sort of Political Risk Will Make the U.K. Carbon Market Fun to Trade”

–The clever thing that the Biden-Harris administration has done is not that it has given the United Nations an ULTIMATUM but that it’s given an OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS: By Mathew Carr April 25-30, 2021 –LONDON: The U.S. earlier this month made its initial choice from markets available to help the country meet its new target for a 50-52% emissions cut in the 25 years through 2030. The world’s richest economy is bypassing — at least for now — markets potentially being set up specifically under the Paris climate deal. Instead, it’ll apparently use the existing voluntary carbon markets. The USA’s latestContinue reading “The World’s Biggest Economy Made a Key Choice That Could Create Trillions of Dollars of Green Projects (3)”

April 23, 2021 — LONDON: The 2% would cover administrative expenses and assist developing countries that are “particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the cost of adaptation measures,” according to statement on UNFCCC website. It would allow adaptation to benefit from rising carbon prices. Key bit: The 2 percentage of credits under both Article 6.2 and 6.4 can be applied as follows:i. Under Article 6.2 the 2 percentage of Article 6.2 ITMOs shall be levied at the transfer and charged to the acquiring party.ii. Under Article 6.4 the 2 percentage of Article 6.4 ERs shallContinue reading “Arab Group of Nations Propose 2% Fee on Paris Carbon Trading for Adaptation”

April 22, 2021. A “leaf coalition” will bring together the public and private sectors to save forests, according to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. See this snippet on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6791025208695357440-veah “The LEAF Coalition is a groundbreaking example of the scale and type of collaboration that is needed to fight the climate crisis and achieve net-zero emissions globally by 2050. Bringing together government and private-sector resources is a necessary step in supporting the large-scale efforts that must be mobilized to halt deforestation and begin to restore tropical and subtropical forests,” said Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry, in a statement.Continue reading ““LEAF Coalition’ to Bring Private and Public Sector Together to Save the Forests”

April 22, 2021 — LONDON: Investors who bought EU carbon allowances on March 18, 2020 — the depth of the pandemic — might have tripled their money. The market traded as high as a record 46.68 euros a metric ton this morning, ahead of President Joe Biden’s climate summit, after dropping as low as 15.71 euros last year, according to data on the website of ICE Futures Europe. Climate negotiations are ramping up; Paris rulebook / carbon club scenarios for 2030, 2031: https://carrzee.org/2021/04/21/consider-some-2030-scenarios-that-may-hit-the-jackpot-for-science-money-climate-justice/

–This straw man * chart shows what climate envoys are grappling with; we are not saying something like this would work, but it shows compromise is possible By Mathew Carr and Tim Williamson April 21, 2021 — London, Washington DC: With climate negotiators struggling to seek consensus on climate solutions, it’s actually fun to try get your head around the maths and the geopolitics. On the one hand it’s super tricky because the sums over the next 10 years are huge, as are the needed trade offs, which will need to cover decades of disagreement. On the other hand, usingContinue reading “Consider Some 2030 Scenarios That May Hit the Jackpot for Science, Money, Climate Justice”

Opinion, By Mathew Carr April 21, 2021 — LONDON: At the invitation of U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend and deliver a speech at the Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22, Xinhua reported. The world seems at a crossroads, where rampant capitalism needs to be reigned in by sustainability measures, socialism (or better rules that improve society rather than eat away at it. For instance, climate polluters need to start to pay for each ton of carbon dioxide equivalent they emit). China announced Xi’s attendance as the Financial Times quoted him on page one sayingContinue reading “資本主義，社會主義合併; Capitalism, Socialism Merge: China’s Xi to Attend Biden Climate Summit After FT Splashes Him on Front Page (1)”

NEWS SUMMARY, PAST BLAST President Biden this week will pledge to slash U.S. greenhouse gas emissions at least in half by the end of the decade, according to two individuals briefed on the plan, as part of an aggressive push to combat climate change, Washington Post reported Asked for comment, a White House official said a final decision had not been made, according to the report. COMMENT: A cut of 50% leaves wiggle room for the USA amid climate negotiations through talks in Glasgow, Scotland, set for November. Those talks on the rulebook for the Paris climate deal could seeContinue reading “U.S. to Slash Emissions by at Least Half by 2030: Washington Post”

NEWS SUMMARY WITH COMMENT By FT, comment by Mathew Carr — LONDON: The UK will this week commit to a deeper cut in carbon emissions as it prepares to host the UN’s COP26 climate summit later this year, according to people briefed on the plan, Financial Times reported. “Prime minister Boris Johnson will in coming days announce a new pledge to reduce emissions by 78 per cent by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. The new UK target will be announced ahead of a major US climate summit on Thursday, where President Joe Biden is due to outline a new nationalContinue reading “U.K. to Adopt 78% Emissions Cut by 2035; FT With Comment About Bringing Ambition Forward To 2030”

By Mathew Carr April 19, 2021 — LONDON: South Pole, which provides services to help cut greenhouse gas, has sold a stake valuing it at at least 200 million euros. The company didn’t specify all details of the transaction, but the price was from 20 million to 30 million euros for a 10% cash injection, said Renat Heuberger, CEO of South Pole. The buyer was Lightrock, an impact investor. Zurich-based South Pole now expects to double the size of its staff to about 1,000 people, as it seeks to capitalize on a global push to decarbonize economies to protect theContinue reading “Climate Solver South Pole Sells Stake to Help Finance Expansion”

–Statement also fails to mention whether two nations will update their “nationally determined contributions” to the Paris climate deal this month; they are already 4 months late By Mathew Carr (Corrects chart vs earlier version) April 18, 2021 — LONDON: The two countries, the biggest climate polluters, held meetings on climate action. The global pandemic has already delayed the COP26 UN climate meeting by a year. It’s meant to be happening in November in Glasgow. Surging coronavirus infections across much of the world have spurred speculation that the talks will be delayed again. Without a global climate deal, countries canContinue reading “美中發布聯合氣候聲明，未提及格拉斯哥談判的時機; U.S. and China Issue Joint Climate Statement Without Mentioning Timing of Glasgow Negotiations (3)”

By Mathew Carr April 16, 2021 — LONDON: UN climate envoys still disagree on several key issues as they strive to agree and install rules into the Paris climate deal that will pivot markets in favor of the climate. Share of carbon trading proceeds sent to emerging countries for adaptation, Corresponding adjustments to targets when making emission trades, Transitioning Kyoto-era carbon credits into the Paris era …are still among issues flummoxing UN climate envoys. UN negotiators are seeking to ENSURE the world’s markets better protect the climate. They’ve been trying and pretty much failing for 30 years. See this: (UpdatesContinue reading “UN Climate Envoys Seek To Converge on More than Three Key Issues as they Strive to Adjust Global Markets (1)”

By Mathew Carr April 16, 2021 — LONDON: The U.K., which is planning to host UN climate talks later this year, is being mocked for its apparent inability to collaborate. The European Federation of Energy Traders called for the linking of the post-Brexit U.K. emissions trading system, still under construction, with the EU CO2 market, the world’s biggest. Brexit forced the UK out of the EU market. Alistair McGirr, Head of Strategic Policy at UK utility SSE, said this: “Progress on linking between the UK ETS and the EU ETS has been disappointing/non-existent. Time is running out for it toContinue reading “UN Climate Talks Leadership Mocked for its Inability to Collaborate”

By Mathew Carr April 16, 2021 — LONDON: The UNFCCC Conference Of the Parties Bureau has agreed to hold a virtual climate-protection meeting from May 31 to June 17, 2021. The world’s climate is in grave risk, as economies rebound after the pandemic. Many nations have few market incentives that otherwise would curb emissions or spur investment in projects that cut greenhouse gases, even after three decades of UN climate negotiations. Some, probably misinformed, climate activists are even calling for a delay in talks scheduled for November in Glasgow. Those talks were already delayed a year because of the pandemic, a decisionContinue reading “Three Weeks of Virtual Climate Talks to Begin May 31 (1)”

By Mathew Carr April 15-16, 2021 — LONDON: China’s carbon market may be oversupplied at the beginning, but the nation will risk missing its net-zero target for 2060 unless the program quickly gets strict under a tightening carbon cap, according to new analysis. Carbon prices in the country’s planned national market are initially seen near zero by Matt Gray, who has analysed the country’s giant coal power industry and carbon market plans. That’s because the market, which could become the world’s biggest, will be oversupplied based on the 2019-2020 allocation, Gray, Co-Founder and Co-CEO at TransitionZero, estimates: Gray says thereContinue reading “分析：中國的碳市場似乎失敗了，但它可能很快變得嚴格; China’s Carbon Market Seems Set Up to Fail, Yet it Could Quickly Get Strict: Analysis”

EXCLUSIVE: By Mathew Carr April 14, 2021 — LONDON: The shipping industry needs to boost its focus on futures contracts for cleaner fuel, or risk missing its targets to cut emissions by 2030. An immediate challenge is that it needs to get over a surge in shipping demand as economies recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Futures contracts could be introduced within two-to-three years, as liquefied natural gas, biofuels and green hydrogen become more physically traded, replacing dirtier bunker fuels, according to EEX’s Richard Heath, Head of Business Development, Global Commodities. But, as in most industries, money is getting in theContinue reading “New Clean Fuel Contracts Could Come Too Late in Shipping Industry as Post-Pandemic Bounce Lifts Emissions (1)”

By Mathew Carr April 12, 2021 — LONDON: Kyoto carbon credits have more than doubled since December, as emerging countries negotiate to protect the value of their early-emissions-cutting effort in global climate negotiations. Prices are still very low compared with those being enjoyed by sellers in the EU carbon market, the world’s biggest. Emerging countries are wanting at least a portion of Certified Emission Reductions created under the UN Clean Development Mechanism allowed for use to meet targets in the Paris era, which begins this year. The CDM was created under the Kyoto Protocol, a multilateral agreement that set targetsContinue reading “Kyoto Carbon Credits Have Doubled as BRIC Countries Negotiate Hard on Paris”

–“Reality carbon price” still missing globally; prices too low: Kerry By Mathew Carr April 9, 2021 — LONDON: U.S. Special Envoy on Climate John Kerry said talks on carbon markets will intensify “into the next months” because they are an important tool in combating the climate crisis. Clean tech has plunged in cost, yet the world is continuing its dirty ways amid the coronavirus pandemic recovery because there’s little incentive to shift from the status quo. That’s why carbon prices are desperately needed — polluters need to start paying. See his comments, speaking in India, April 8: “Journalist:  Jayashree Nandi, HindustanContinue reading “Trump ‘Shot America’s Credibility in the Head’; Carbon Market Discussions to Ramp Up in Coming Months: Kerry”

–This is what success at saving the climate might look like in 2030; these are not answers, but requests for collaboration and better ideas–U.S. plan gets air*–Former Obama-administration official and I collaborate on alternative slices and dices (see notes) By Mathew Carr (and friends) — corrects charts, text** April 6-23, 2021 — LONDON: The United States should undertake its own “belt and road initiative” to help solve the climate crisis, if it’s genuinely concerned about China’s expansion program. China’s belt and road initiative is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the government in 2013 to invest in nearly 70 countries and internationalContinue reading “OPINION: Slicing and Dicing the Climate; Carbon Pricing Would Help U.S. Undertake its Own Belt and Road Initiative (7)”

By Mathew Carr April 5-6, 2021 — LONDON: The U.S. could agree to cut its emissions by 60% in the 25 years through 2030, according to a well-placed renewables expert. The country’s current plan under the 2015 Paris climate deal is for a 26%-28% cut by 2025 vs 2005 levels. A 50% drop by 2030 would not be a “big jump in ambition, to be honest with you. I personally think we should exceed 60% by 2030,” said Tim Williamson, an Obama renewable energy official who’s now interested in developing pumped-hydropower storage. “That’s just me. I don’t know if theContinue reading “EXCLUSIVE: U.S. Can Achieve 60% Emissions Cut by 2030: Former Obama Official (3)”

By Mathew Carr March 31, 2021 — LONDON: The U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry said some nations have more responsibility for the climate crisis and so will have different policies to address it. He didn’t name his own country the U.S., which is most responsible for the climate crisis yet has only 4% of the world’s population. But he did mention America didn’t really want to be “scolding” other nations. Kerry said leaders needed to engage in less “happy talk” on climate action and should begin ambitious programs to cut emissions and adapt to warmer temperatures. The effectiveness ofContinue reading “U.S. Concedes Some Countries Have More Responsibility for the Climate Crisis; Kerry Pleads for Less Happy Talk (1)”

— UN climate talks in November in Glasgow at risk: Sky News By Mathew Carr March 31-April 1, 2021 — LONDON: The U.S. said its climate envoy would head to Asia for talks, soon after nations clashed on climate justice and responsibility for the climate crisis. Countries may need to delay United Nations talks scheduled for November, Sky News reported late yesterday (Wednesday). While Sky cited the Covid-19 pandemic for the potential delay, the comments made by senior government officials Wednesday show there is still tension over a way forward, after meetings held earlier this week on how to tweakContinue reading “U.S. Heads to Asia After India Calls on Developed Nations to Begin Removing More Greenhouse Gas Than They Emit (2)”

The World Trade Organization will meet on green-trade rules immediately after the climate talks in Glasgow in November this year, according to Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, director general of the organization. Greening the flows of goods and services will be a step forward in the climate fight, boosting employment in renewable energy, for instance, she told an IEA conference. The EU and other nations are pushing for trade to be linked to climate policy to encourage action on cutting emissions by countries wanting to tap global markets. “We know we need to scale up investments, both public and private,” Okonjo IwealaContinue reading “WTO Will Meet on Green Trade Rules Immediately After Glasgow Climate Talks”

NEWS SUMMARY March 29, 2021 — LONDON: A pilot carbon emissions trading system was given the go-ahead on the country’s largest island of Sakhalin as part of a roadmap to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2025, the UNFCCC reported. See link below. Russia is considering scaling up the results of the initiative to cover all its territory, according to the report. Sakhalin Island’s net-zero plan, including an inventory of its greenhouse gas emissions and natural carbon sequestration potential, will be under development through August, before an emissions trading system is set up to begin operating in mid-2022, with theContinue reading “Russia’s Far-East Carbon Market Seen Using CO2 Capture for Net-Zero Emissions by 2025”

–Stark Choices: Profit Motive Can Spur Big Emission Cuts Over the Next Five Years–There’s no guarantee the UN can create carbon markets that are better than current voluntary markets By Mathew Carr March 29, 2021 — LONDON: This week, the world is discussing how new markets of the Paris climate deal will work to cut greenhouse gas very quickly during the next 5 to 10 years. Or, the talks will fail yet again. The United Nations negotiations are crucial if countries are to have any chance at all of meeting the global target to limit temperature rises to less thanContinue reading “The Voluntary Carbon Market is Piling Pressure on UN Climate Envoys (2)”

–Unlikely U.S. carbon legislation will be introduced this year: Morgan Stanley–EU carbon futures rise to close Wednesday at a record above 43 euros a ton –U.S. catch-up effort seen world-war like ANALYSIS SUMMARY, REACTION By Mathew Carr March 17-18, 2021 — LONDON: The fact that various countries are tackling the climate crisis at completely different speeds may stoke trade tension, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. The introduction of a carbon border adjustment by the EU could encourage a range of responses from Europe’s trading partners, said the bank’s analysts including Jessica Alsford in London. “The end goal is toContinue reading “Varied Speeds of Climate Action Around the World Seen Causing Trade Tension (1)”

–EU will struggle to abide by WTO rules should it seek to retain two-pronged industry protection: Sandbag OPINION By Mathew Carr March 11, 2021 — London: European Union carbon allowances hit another record, this time above 42 euros a ton, as the region signals it won’t be taken advantage of because of its climate ambition. Futures hit that level today after lawmakers adopted a double lock for industry to ensure the region’s high domestic carbon prices won’t give an unfair advantage to manufacturers outside the region seeking to tap EU consumers. Members of the European Parliament have this week consideredContinue reading “EU Carbon Hits Record Above 42 Euros as Region Signals it Won’t be Taken Advantage of on Climate Any Longer (2)”

–US emissions-cutting plan crucial as big 20 consider each others’ 2030 carbon limits through October, ahead of UN climate talks in November–Will President Biden speed the pace of cuts vs Obama ambition? By Mathew Carr March 9, 2021 — LONDON: The U.S. is still seeking to widen the responsibility for cleaning up the climate crisis mess, which it’s most responsible for. In a TV interview with Newsnight in London, visiting U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry ducked a question about whether the world’s biggest economy would lead in emission cuts. Kerry is instead seeking to enlist other big countries intoContinue reading “Twenty Biggest Countries Have Special Role to Stem Climate Crisis: Kerry (1)”

By Mathew Carr March 5, 2021 — LONDON: There was record volume of EU carbon options traded in February, said exchange operator ICE. There was a total volume of more than 412,000 options contracts, a record average of more than 20,500 per day.See link: https://ir.theice.com/press/news-details/2021/ICE-Announces-Update-on-Global-Environmental-Complex-as-the-ICE-Global-Carbon-Futures-Index-Hits-Record-High-and-EUA-Options-Reaches-Record-Volume/default.aspx The ICE Global Carbon Futures Index value (ICECRBN) reached a record on Feb. 12, with a weighted average price of $39.08/ton, the exchange said. EU allowances, which make up most of the index, closed that day above 40 euros for the first time, as policy makers in the region and beyond are seen tightening climateContinue reading “EU Carbon Options Had Record Volume in February as Price Hit All-Time High (1)”

–Hydrogen supply chain companies eg Siemens and Alstom: “like selling picks and shovels in the California gold rush”–Clever contracts for difference, emissions market seen bringing investment forward, needed to meet Paris-climate-deal goals–China and U.S. could jump on board, as Europe leads way ANALYSIS SUMMARY By Mathew Carr March 4, 2021 –LONDON: Hydrogen, including its green variety, will increasingly replace carbon as the dominant energy carrier on the planet, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. Cumulative investments in renewable hydrogen in Europe, which has the most developed policy to encourage H2, could be up to €180-470 billion by 2050, and in theContinue reading “New Gold Rush?: Hydrogen Seen Replacing Fossil Fuels as World’s Dominant Energy Carrier: Morgan Stanley”

–Push for carbon border adjustments seen in drive for climate justice, higher CO2 prices and steeper tax rates–Governments can also “nudge” change, not just force it–Post-Brexit British system can be model for the world–NOTE: Johnson and Sunak didn’t step up By Mathew Carr March 2-3, 2021 — LONDON: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak have a chance to change U.K. and global history today; there’s only a small chance they’ll take it. Challenging the people (Conservative Party members) who put you in power takes courage. I’m not sure these gentlemen have enough bravery, but I hope I’mContinue reading “Nudges, Tax and Trade: Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak Can Set Their Legacy Today; There’s a Small Chance They’ll Do it (3)”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 26, 2021 — LONDON: ICE Futures Europe said it would start auctioning new U.K. emissions allowances on May 19. On the same day, it will begin offering futures contracts and two days later a prompt contract, UKA Daily Futures, subject to regulatory approval, ICE said in an e-mailed statement. The first of fortnightly auctions would include 6.05 million tons of allowances. Britain was forced out of the EU carbon market, the world’s biggest by traded volume, following its vote in the middle of 2016 to leave the union. Some U.K. generators have been using EU allowancesContinue reading “ICE to Begin U.K.’s New Carbon Market on May 19 (2)”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 26-27, 2021 — LONDON: A former climate negotiator for India, one of the huge developing countries least to blame for the climate crisis, looked on as the U.S. Energy Information Administration apparently missed Joe Biden’s plan to cut emissions to net zero by the middle of the century. See this chart from earlier this month, showing U.S. energy emissions doing very little over the next three decades: Are big-consuming western countries and China, which are most to blame for global warming, really serious about protecting the climate? asked 72-year old Surya Sethi, former climate negotiator forContinue reading “India Climate Negotiator Looks on With Dismay as U.S. Energy Data Provider Misses Biden’s Net-Zero Memo (1)”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 25, 2021 — LONDON: The mother of all market regulators says global markets are in a mess on sustainability. Investors wanting clear disclosure on the climate and natural-environment impact of the bonds and shares they buy are not being well served, the International Organization of Securities Commissions said yesterday. “Companies often report sustainability-related information selectively, referencing different frameworks,” the organization said in a statement on its website:https://www.iosco.org/news/pdf/IOSCONEWS594.pdf IOSCO said there was an “urgent need” for globally consistent, comparable and reliable sustainability disclosure standards. On the same day, the Division of Corporation Finance of the Securities ExchangeContinue reading “Markets Are Failing Investors on Sustainability: Mother of All Market Regulators”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 24, 2021: LONDON — As utilities with U.K. coal and natural gas generation switch to new British carbon allowances during the next few months, the value of those permits and the European Union ones are set to fluctuate wildly, according to traders. The U.K. carbon price seems likely to be higher than that in the EU following Brexit, based on current indications. The expected implementation of the post-Brexit U.K. market by June will be complicated by the country’s floor support. Adding the U.K. floor of 18 pounds a ton to the U.K’s upgraded auction reserve ofContinue reading “Five Years Later, Brexit’s Still Set to Roil Europe’s Carbon Market (1)”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 18, 2021 — LONDON: The problem with existing carbon markets is that they are tainted by complication. It’s hard to know if you are getting good value for money or even if you understand what the heck you’re buying. Market Stability Reserves (MSRs), Certified Emission Reductions (CERs), corresponding adjustments (CAs), additionality, carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs), Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), sustainable development goals (SDGs), Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) and one of my personal favorites: common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RCs). Here are eight pages of acronyms – don’t be shy:https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_AnnexII_Acronymes.pdfContinue reading “Artificial Intelligence Will Make Carbon Markets Work Better This Time — if it Truly is Intelligent”

–G7 outcome highlights chance of climate deal, multilateralism, new system of planet-friendly trade via G20 by June By Mathew Carr Feb. 18-20, 2021 — LONDON: OPINION: The world now needs carbon prices of about $100 a ton in 2030 to spur sufficient climate action to meet the 1.5C temperature increase goal in the Paris climate deal. That is about double the level targeted just a couple of years ago by the Obama administration. The higher price is required because global emissions are still very high, even though nations have become more ambitious, with many adopting mid-century net-zero targets. The requiredContinue reading “Ten Republican Senators Will be Convinced on Ambitious U.S. Climate Action as Global Trade Rules Rewritten (1)”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 15, 2021 — LONDON: Milder temperatures are set to curb demand for EU carbon allowances, even as interest from compliance buyers and investors apparently pushed prices to record levels last week. Still, there’s plenty of chilly weather around Europe the next two weeks, especially in the east. See this minimum-temperature loop from Weatheronline: https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/weathercharts?LANG=en&MAPS=vtn&CONT=euro&LAND=__&ZEIT=202102150229&LOOP=1 Peak gusts loop here: https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/weathercharts?LANG=en&MAPS=wsp&CONT=euro&LAND=__&ZEIT=202102150250&LOOP=1 Some context and price chart here: https://carrzee.org/2021/02/09/eu-carbon-price-needs-to-triple-because-climate-disclosure-governance-measures-havent-worked-aviva/ Plus more context for U.K. energy markets here: https://carrzee.org/2021/02/15/milder-temperatures-to-curb-bullish-eu-carbon-trajectory/

Utility EDF was paid more in 3 days than in all of Q3 by National Grid to balance the system, energy trader Hartree says in emailed market insight covering January. National Grid forced to buy power at £4,000/MWh, some 70 times greater than the average price paid over 2020 EPH achieved the highest average sales price for any day in the Balancing Mechanism of over £3,600/MWh A perfect storm of peak winter demand, low wind generation and delays to supplies from the continent saw record prices for UK power last month, Hartree Solutions says. European Union carbon permits have jumpedContinue reading “U.K. Utilities Get Huge 4,000 Quid/MWh Windfall as Low-Wind Winter Demand Means Fossil Fuels Win: Hartree (2)”

PRESS SUMMARY Feb. 10, 2021 — US Chamber of Commerce names Suzanne Clark as new CEO, replacing Thomas Donohue, who led the organisation for more than two decades, WSJ reported. Days before Mr. Biden was sworn into office, the Chamber took its strongest position yet in favor of climate-change legislation: WSJ Another fascinating two sentences: In 2019, the Chamber said Mr. Donahue would step down in 2022—an announcement that came moments after The Wall Street Journal published a story reporting that Mr. Donohue regularly used the Chamber’s corporate jet service to travel on business and personal trips, including a weeklongContinue reading “Key US Business Group Gets First Female Leader and Pro-Climate Outlook (1)”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 9-March 5, 2021 — LONDON: The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to resume talks on March 29-30 on measures that may allow countries to cut the cost of climate action via cooperation. It held talks last month on adaptation. Consultations are listed here:https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/bodies/supreme-bodies/conference-of-the-parties-cop/presidency-consultations-and-other-presidency-meetings/informal-consultations-by-the-cop-25-presidency-and-the-cop-26-incoming-presidency#eq-5 The negotiations are needed ahead of a planned climate meeting in November in Glasgow, which was delayed a year because of the global coronavirus pandemic. Cooperation rules on market cooperation and via non-market measures are negotiated under Article 6 of Paris. See this:https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/January%20consultations_co%20chairs%20summary%20by%20the%20Presidencies.pdf Here are some of the relevant sections ofContinue reading “United Nations to Resume Global Carbon Market Talks March 29-30 (1)”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 9-13, 2021 – LONDON: The European Union’s carbon price is seen needing to triple to force changes in corporate behavior because climate disclosure and governance measures haven’t worked quickly enough. The CO2 allowance price “needs to be three times where it is today, even though it’s at record levels,” said Steve Waygood, chief responsible investment officer at Aviva, the funds manager. Disclosing climate risks and requiring board members to focus on other stakeholders such as society have not protected the climate and nature adequately and they probably won’t do alone, he said. That’s why politicians needContinue reading “Carbon Hits Record 40 Euros; Needs to Surge as Climate Disclosure, Governance Measures Haven’t Worked: Aviva (3)”

— The climate transition is set to be better managed— Climate activist Greta Thunberg will be pleased By Mathew Carr OPINION, Feb. 9-13, 2021 — LONDON: Not before time, the right things are becoming desirable in the previously cut-throat world of financial markets. The push-pull for climate-friendly products has become so strong, pension funds are starting to ignore profits made from burning coal, crude oil or even natural gas. Instead of black gold, examples of emissions-cutting market innovation are gushing thick and fast. Green is the new black in the commodity world. A few days ago research and rating providerContinue reading “The Era of Climate Brinkmanship is Ending as Carbon-Free Cashflow Rises (2)”

By Mathew Carr Feb. 4, 2021 — LONDON: EU carbon allowances surged for a third day in a row, after the Times of London newspaper said putting a price on climate pollution “made sense” even though it was politically risky. The allowances rose above 38 euros a ton before falling back. See this chart from the IG website: Intraday here from ICE: Here are some reasons for carbon’s gain, by Alessandro Vitelli, a long-time market watcher and analyst:https://www.carbonreporter.com/post/may-you-live-in-interesting-times The Times wrote an editorial which included a headline that could be read in two ways “Costing the Earth”: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-carbon-taxes-costing-the-earth-wkbm92p8z: New taxesContinue reading “Carbon Allowances Spike to Record Above 38 Euros as Murdoch’s Times Newspaper Endorses Pollution Pricing (1)”

–Carbon neutral* deal won’t help buyers’ particulate-pollution, but will help the climate, assuming offsetting’s done well–Further details not immediately available By Mathew Carr Jan. 30-Feb. 5, 2021 –LONDON: The story of Occidental Petroleum’s delivery of carbon-neutral crude oil to India’s Reliance Industries has taken a twist or two. Oxy said Jan. 28 that under a “transaction,” Reliance would receive the shipment. Now, it’s up for sale, according to a person familiar with the situation. That India’s biggest listed company was taking the oil — produced in the U.S. Permian Basin — was surprising, because the energy transition is meant toContinue reading “TECH-LED OIL SHIFT: Historic First Net-Zero Crude Shipment Up For Sale: Person (2)”

By Mathew Carr Jan. 29-31, 2021 –LONDON: OPINION — Call me an optimist (plenty have), but the diplomatic foxtrot taking place across the globe right now seems like some sort of delicate-aggressive climate-trade negotiation. The U.S., China and the European Union know it’s time to cooperate aggressively on climate action and on the trade of goods. Doing so would tackle half the world’s heat-trapping gas and give us all an outside chance of keeping temperatures from rising 1.5C. As climate activist Greta Thunberg rightly keeps reminding us, it seems very unlikely. But take a ride in my green-hydrogen-fueled helicopter forContinue reading “The Stage is Set for A Single Deal to Tackle Half of the World’s Emissions. Actors? (5)”

By Mathew Carr NEWS SUMMARY Jan. 29, 2021 — LONDON: Special U.S. climate envoy John Kerry is on a roll. Not only is he invoking “humility” in his country’s newly invigorated climate fight, he’s calling out former President Donald Trump’s stance as “reckless.” Now, he’s gone even further. “There’s no room for BS anymore — from anyone in the debate,” he told Amanda Little (I think oyster-mushroom steaks are great, fame), in a story published by Bloomberg News. Call ME reckless, but I’m taking BS as bullshit, and I’m also taking it as a reference to Mr Trump (although there’sContinue reading “The U.S. Calls Out (Its Own?) Climate Bullshit”

–Taskforce comes up with voluntary-carbon-market blueprint–While far from ideal, net-zero companies from Google to Shell see a way forward and want its risk-management potential–RWE case shows how EU’s decent market helps polluters shift By Mathew Carr Jan. 28, 2021 — LONDON: Companies from Royal Dutch Shell to Google who want to lead the pack on climate action realise they need a way of reducing the risk of doing so. While they may have flirted with carbon markets, companies buying and selling emissions credits have had a patchy time for much of the last decade. The main problem is the lackContinue reading “Complex Voluntary Carbon Blueprint Highlights Need for a Better System (2)”

By Mathew Carr Jan. 27, 2021 — LONDON: U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris issued a slew of executive orders to help protect the climate at home and across the world. They ordered federal agencies to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies “as consistent with applicable law and identify new opportunities to spur innovation, commercialization, and deployment of clean energy technologies and infrastructure.” The orders direct the Director of National Intelligence to prepare a“National Intelligence Estimate on the security implications of climate change,” according to a statement from the White House. The U.S., China and the EU are seenContinue reading “U.S. to Scale Back Fossil-Fuel Subsidies Among Slew of Climate Orders: Biden-Harris (1)”

By Mathew Carr Jan. 26, 2021 — LONDON: China continues to slowly turn the screws on greenhouse gas, saying Shanghai is to peak its emissions before 2025, according to China Daily. Having the city begin cutting emissions soonish indicates the most populous country is looking closely at what it can do as nations are meant to be boosting the ambition of their climate targets before the Glasgow UNFCCC talks in November. It comes as John Kerry, special U.S. climate envoy asks China to try to reach net zero by 2050 instead of 2060. The U.S. has only 4% of theContinue reading “Shanghai Strives to Hit Carbon Dioxide Peak before 2025, as China Considers Ambition; Biden Tackles Oil, Gas”

–Finance sector shift to sustainability continues?–Subnational finance in emerging nations gets support By Mathew Carr Jan. 26, 2021 — LONDON: Can the private equity model help save the climate? We’re about to find out. The $750 million Global Subnational Climate Fund is investing in clean-energy, land management and waste projects in states and cities in 42 emerging countries. See this 71 page proposal, approved late last year by the Green Climate Fund based in South Korea: https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp152.pdf The subnational fund is not private equity because there’s a taxpayer element, but it’s overseen by Pegasus Capital Advisors LP, a green andContinue reading “It’s Private Equity, But Not as You Know it; Gold Standard, Arnie, DiCaprio Watch On (1)”

By Mathew Carr Jan. 24, 2021 — LONDON: China’s plans to cut emissions to net zero by 2060 should not stand, according to John Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy. “We don’t want that to stand. We need to get down from 2060,” Kerry told a virtual meeting with U.S. mayors on the weekend. “If that’s happening with the largest emitter in the world, we’re all going to lose credibility,” Kerry said. See this, about 37 minutes in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rSNSsWC-Yg Thirty eight states covering 80% of the U.S. population “kept going” on emission cuts despite Trump’s anti-climate-action stance, Kerry said. The nationContinue reading “While Trump’s Exit from the Paris Climate Deal was Reckless, China’s Net Zero Target for 2060 is not Soon Enough: Kerry”

–Humility and justice on climate begin emitting from U.S. officials for the first time in four years –The foundation of a global carbon market is laid, with the voluntary system immediately providing some glue and investment incentive by Mathew Carr Jan. 20-27, 2021 — LONDON: On Donald Trump’s last day in office, it was becoming clearer that the European Union’s push to link climate action and trade policy is rapidly paying dividends. Portugal has taken over the presidency of the EU for this six-month period ending June, and one of its priorities is to focus on the region’s plan toContinue reading “The EU’s Gambit to Link Trade and Climate Action Pays Off, Drawing China and the U.S. (3)”

Mathew Carr Jan. 19, 2021 (London) — As the world examines Mr Donald Trump’s legacy, it’ll certainly remember his tendency to say one thing and do another. This is what the White House is saying about some of his achievements in the environmental realm: “In 2019, America achieved the largest decline in carbon emissions of any country on earth. Since withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, the United States has reduced carbon emissions more than any nation,” is one key claim. Let’s take a look. It’s not clear exactly what data Mr Trump is using. BP Plc data for energyContinue reading “Will Trump Claim Credit for a Second Year of U.S. Emission Declines? Surely Not”

–Rich-country green lobbyists are being enabled by western-based news media, countries … and even academics–Global business, emerging countries are being unfairly downplayed, causing the climate crisis to worsen By Mathew Carr Jan. 16-21, 2021 — LONDON: When Trafigura Group explained how it plans to meet its sparkling new 2023 emissions-reduction target, the Singapore commodities giant is at pains to highlight that it plans to use carbon credits only in a limited way. To meet its limited-scope 30% emission-reduction plan in the next three years, “we’ll consider offsetting them through the purchase of carbon offsets, although this will be a smallContinue reading “Western Environmental Lobby Groups Are Slowing Climate Action (5)”

–The reduction in 2020 alone is more than Canada’s entire energy emissions in 2019 By Mathew Carr Jan. 12, 2021 — (LONDON): The United States cut carbon dioxide emissions by the largest amount ever for a single nation last year, as the coronavirus pandemic forced a massive reduction in the transport of its people. The U.S. emissions probably fell around 630 million tons of CO2, according to this Tweet from scientist Glen Peters, research director at @CICERO_klima: I highlight the relevant part of the chart here with a large red arrow: The reduction alone is more than the entire energyContinue reading “The U.S. Has Cut Emissions by the Biggest Amount in History for a Single Nation (1)”

–China’s carbon market officially starts in two days (Feb. 1)–Precise date of carbon cap remains unclear–EU welcomes China’s moves By Mathew Carr Jan. 9-29, 2021 — LONDON: China is seen capping its national emissions of greenhouse gas for the first time. It will strive to do so in the five years starting 2026, after beginning experiments on caps in regional areas, according to a China Daily report. Precisely when the cap will start remains a mystery. But, importantly, it’s the first time the nation has said it will probably agree to a physical cap. Until now it’s been only willingContinue reading “China Seen Capping Emissions in the Five Years From 2026 in Boost for Global Climate Fight (6)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 8, 2021 — LONDON: Open interest, a measure of trading positions that have not closed, advanced 23% to 157,470 EU carbon futures contracts by the end of the year vs the same time in 2019, according to EEX. The exchange uses the measure “synthetic net OI futures,” which has advanced slightly since then to 158,754 contracts, according to the EEX website. Still, the exchange has a small portion of the market versus ICE Futures Europe, based in London, which had open interest of 1.18 million lots at the end of the year, including options. So, asContinue reading “EEX’s Open Positions in EU Carbon Futures Rise Year on Year Amid Brexit (1)”

–Climate fight gathers steam but thorny issues remain, especially those around global trade in energy-intensive goods (consumption emissions) By Mathew Carr Jan. 7-8, 2021– LONDON: The world has suddenly got a better chance of hitting the targets in the Paris climate deal after Democrats won control of the U.S. senate. It’s now more likely the nation, most to blame for the climate crisis, can get to grips with its own wasteful energy, household and transport systems. The U.S. also plans to use its diplomatic and economic muscle to spur faster climate action across the globe. The world can now attackContinue reading “Boxing Gloves Are Off in Global Climate Fight As Democrats to Control U.S. Senate (4)”

By Mathew Carr Jan. 7-8, 2021 — LONDON: The market for European Union carbon allowances jumped to record after so far coming away largely unscathed by Brexit. The volume of open interest, a measure of trading positions that have not closed, has grown from the end of 2019, according to data from ICE Futures Europe, the main exchange for emissions trading. Here are futures and options positions opened but not closed, measured by the number of contracts for the past five years: Note the Dec. future is the most commonly traded, so interest drops each year from end of Nov.Continue reading “UPDATED: EU CO2 Jumps to Record as Market Comes Away Unscathed; Brexit Otherwise Takes Toll (4)”

By Mathew Carr Jan. 5, 2021 — LONDON: I wanted to highlight this key opinion — of a reporter who’s followed the development of China’s national carbon market for many years. My response: A not-stupid question: Another not-stupid question: Hefty shove the whole world doesn’t want? (More to come. I will seek responses from the China and the U.S. governments) See this:https://carrzee.org/2020/12/18/china-vows-to-seize-time-and-set-plan-to-peak-emissions-by-2030-and-cooperate-globally/

By Mathew Carr Jan. 4, 2021 — LONDON: European Union Carbon permits rise above 34 euros for the first time ever, getting a bullish start to 2021 ahead of a two-week cold snap. They were up 3.4% to 33.82 euros a ton as of 11:19am, according to data on the website of the ICE Futures Europe exchange, having reached 34.24 euros earlier in the morning. The region’s cold snap will boost demand for heating and electricity. Click link for loop here: Carbon is rising as lawmakers consider how to tighten the program and the region’s emissions targets. The move comesContinue reading “EU Carbon Permits Have Bullish Start to Year, Rising Above 34 Euros a Ton (1)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 31, 2020 — LONDON: Australia updated its “pledge” to the Paris climate agreement before a deadline today, yet failed to boost its ambition compared with its plan in 2016. The nation plans to cut emissions 26%-28% vs 2005 levels by 2030, which provides a “budget,” or cap, of roughly 4.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, according to its Nationally Determined Contribution: Under previous governments, Australia began a national carbon trading system and sought to link with the EU emissions market, the world’s biggest. But that was abandoned as governments changed. Setting a cap could beContinue reading “Australia Fails to Boost Climate Ambition; Sets Out Carbon Cap Through 2030”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 30, 2020-Jan. 2, 2021 — LONDON: A mere eight countries have bothered to submit their second “pledges” under the Paris climate deal on time so far, even though the global warming crisis is worsening and business is betting real money that governments will get their act together. While it’s true there have been about 180 updates to the so-called “nationally determined contributions” the past four years, according to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change website, there is little evidence that countries have so far boosted ambition anywhere near the required amount. Increased ambition was toContinue reading “In a Bitter End to 2020, Back-Slapping Nations Fail to Respect the UN on Climate Yet Again (6)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 29, 2020-Jan. 2, 2021 — LONDON: A law designed to improve disclosure by companies out of the reach of U.S. financial oversight is seen boosting climate action, potentially sooner than the Paris climate deal. The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which came into law Dec. 18 after being signed by President Trump, will require companies, especially those with operations in China, to show who owns them and how they operate. Anti-money laundering laws will also bite at the same time. Companies, such as those logging in Asia, risk having their access to financial markets cut off,Continue reading “New Trump Law Seen Boosting Climate Action, Even Outside the U.S. (2)”

–China retains access to EU markets and gets investment possibilities in renewable energy, the Financial Times reports By Mathew Carr Dec. 28-29, 2020– LONDON: Agreement ‘could be reached as early as Tuesday’ following movement on major sticking point, Newspapers reported. “No country had raised ‘stop sign’ clearing way for political endorsement, source says,” according to the South China Morning Post. For China, it retains access to EU markets and offers investment possibilities in renewable energy, the Financial Times reports. The endorsement of the deal came after EU negotiators said there were “positive developments” on Beijing’s commitments on labour standards, oneContinue reading “Climate in the Frame as EU members back China investment deal (2)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 28, 2020 (LONDON) — EU carbon prices rose to their highest ever ahead of a period of freezing weather across much of Europe early next week. Natural gas contracts surged. EU December 2021 allowances advanced as high as 33.50 euros a ton and were up 2.5% at 32.98 euros at 1pm in London, according to data from the website of the ICE Futures Europe exchange. (The price might have been even higher as the data provided on the website does not include every trade.) The gain also followed the striking of a Brexit trade deal Dec.Continue reading “EU Carbon Surges to Record After Brexit Deal, as Freezing Weather Approaches; Natural Gas Jumps to Year High (1)”

–Young bear hit by oil drilling, dashing hopes for ambitious January By Mathew Carr and others Dec. 27, 2020-Jan. 9, 2021 — LONDON: Since nearly 200 nations were supposedly set to finish tightening their contributions to the Paris agreement by the end of last year (Dec. 31 — we assume, because there’s a deadline under that ratified UN deal), they’ll be up for getting cracking on unprecedented climate action starting January 2021. Here’s how a fictional baby polar bear, let’s call him Yao, would like to see humans play January out, day by day … but it hasn’t gone soContinue reading “A Polar Bear Dreams Up January 2021 Climate Resolutions –Not All of 2021 (2)”

— Parties not obliged to link carbon markets but will consider doing so–U.K.-EU carbon link seen announced in November–WTO signals tension on climate coming By Mathew Carr Dec. 25-28, 2020 — LONDON: The Brexit trade agreement between the EU and the U.K. includes reciprocal commitments not to reduce the level of environmental or climate protection. Disputes on climate, environment and trade is “not subject to the agreement’s main dispute resolution mechanism but will instead be governed by a bespoke Panel of Experts procedure.” Disputes between nations are set to become more common as climate and energy policy impacts trade andContinue reading “U.K.-EU Disputes on Climate to be Heard by ‘Bespoke Panel of Experts’ After Brexit; 2021 Link Seen (4)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 24, 2020 — LONDON: Countries are seen setting both emissions limits and targets for removing heat-trapping gas from the atmosphere. The idea is important as countries set their contributions to the Paris climate agreement, ideally by the end of this month. Such a move would eliminate the false compensation arguments being made by companies and countries seeking to “offset” their emissions and hit “net zero” targets, said Niklas Höhne, a founding partner of NewClimate Institute. He is also Special Professor “mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions” at Wageningen University in the Netherlands. “To find a balance between the removal target and theContinue reading “Countries Seen Setting Emissions AND Removals Targets Separately: the Price of Carbon ‘Needs to be Higher Than the Cost of Capturing it Later’ (1)”

–Brexit trade talks run to the wire — here’s how Britain will probably push, with or without an EU trade deal By Mathew Carr Dec. 22, 2020 — LONDON: The environment and the levels of industrial assistance are apparently two of the issues holding up the trade negotiations between the U.K. and the EU. British PM Boris Johnson said talks remain in trouble about a week from the end of the year and the end of the Brexit transition period, according to the BBC. If there’s no deal, Britain might exit under World Trade Organization rules (or the fraught talksContinue reading “Boris Brexit Bullsh!t? No. Six Ways U.K. Will Literally Lead the EU and the World on Climate and Energy”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 18, 2020 — LONDON: China’s Central Economic Work Conference on Friday vowed to “formulate an action plan for peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030,” Xinhua said. China will support ways to “peak emissions ahead of schedule.” The world’s most populous nation and biggest emitter previously announced it would peak emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. At the same time China would build more “independent and controllable” industrial supply chains as it forms a new development model. The nation would “stimulate the vitality of market entities” as it opens up in an “all-round way.”Continue reading “China Vows to ‘Seize Time’ and Set Plan to Peak Emissions by 2030 Plus Cooperate Globally on Trade (1)”

–Developing countries, where emission cuts come cheaper, will probably get accounting benefit under Paris climate deal: Carney By Mathew Carr Dec. 17-18, 2020 — (LONDON): Emerging countries could become a key beneficiary of the voluntary carbon market being promoted by Mark Carney as a key part of the climate solution. That’s because well-meaning global companies might be about to double down on that market. A businesses buying emission credits from an Indonesia forest project, for instance, would ideally get to put the emission-reduction into its annual report as it seeks to hit its net-zero target, Carney said Thursday in anContinue reading “Carney: Here is How Large Global Companies Like Google and Swiss Re Will Solve an Extra 10% of the Climate Crisis (5)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 17-22 –LONDON: The volume of open positions on environmental markets in the U.S. and Europe together surged to a record near the end of the year, after President Donald Trump lost the U.S. vote. The volume of open positions on ICE, the biggest exchange for environmental commodities, advanced by approximately 16% from the end of 2019 to about 2.8 million contracts, said ICE spokeswoman Rebecca Mitchell, by phone. The open positions are measured by the metric “open interest.” Average daily volume in the environmental complex is up by approximately 20%, ICE said. The complex includes EUContinue reading “Global Bets on Environmental Markets Surge to Record After Trump Loses: ICE (2)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 17, 2020 — LONDON: Global exchange group ICE won a deal to hold auctions of U.K. carbon allowances for Britain, once the nation bows out of the EU at the end of the month and leaves Europe’s emissions market. The sales of British carbon allowances would start by the middle of next year and ICE would offer futures in the same time frame, giving British emitters some idea of when they’ll be able to manage the risks of their exposure to the program, ICE said in a statement. The U.K. hopes to link its market withContinue reading “ICE to Auction Carbon Allowances for U.K. After Brexit, to Offer Futures by June 30 (2)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 17, 2020 — LONDON: The value of selected carbon credits has surged by about a third during the coronavirus pandemic, as companies bet on a green buildback. NATURE-based credits have jumped by about $2 a ton to $8 a metric ton since March, said Eddie Listorti, chief executive officer at carbon advisory firm Viridios Capital in Sydney, Australia. “It’s a steal at $6-$8,” Listorti said by phone. That’s because credits at that price can include attributes of about 12 UN sustainable development goals. Also, EU carbon allowances, traded in the world’s biggest carbon market by tradedContinue reading “EXCLUSIVE: Selected Carbon Credits Surge by One Third During Coronaviris Pandemic”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 17, 2020 — LONDON: Standards that require companies to disclose their climate risks and measures to ensure a clean exit to the coronavirus pandemic are seen boosting demand for carbon credits. “A number of large multinationals including Unilever, Microsoft, Mars, Maple Leaf Foods, Google, Nike, HSBC, Swiss Re have committed to making their business operations carbon neutral,” said Lisa DeMarco, senior partner at DeMarco Allan LLP and others, in an article published Wednesday on the Energy Regulation Quarterly website. The firm specialises in climate law. “And any number of entities are purchasing carbon offsets in theContinue reading “Business Net Zero Limits, Climate Disclosure Spurring CO2 Credit Demand”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 15, 2020 — LONDON: Seven carbon markets, existing and possible, could link and cover most of the world’s emissions, according to a key China academic. China, the U.S., the EU, Russia, South Africa, Korea and Southeast Asia could link carbon markets, providing an incentive to reduce climate-damaging emissions, said Xiliang Zhang of the Institute of Energy, Environment & Economy at Tsinghua University. The tokenisation of commodities and products, blockchain may help spur linking of carbon markets, Zhang told the online European Climate Summit. Speakers on the summit panel discussing carbon-market linking expressed doubt linkages were likelyContinue reading “Seven Carbon Markets Seen Linking and Covering Much of the World’s Emissions (3)”

–Transition from Kyoto to Paris set (sort of) By Mathew Carr Dec. 15, 2020 — LONDON: The board overseeing the main UN carbon market agreed to extend the program into next year, at least temporarily, creating a transition into the era of the Paris climate deal. The move gives investors in carbon credits created in developing countries under the Kyoto Protocol a chance to get a return on their investment, which is currently threatened by low demand and near-zero prices. The panel, the executive board of the Clean Development Mechanism, will continue registering emission-cutting projects and issuing credits on aContinue reading “Panel Extends UN Carbon Market Until Glasgow Climate Talks”

–Carbon-market links come into sharper focus, but first–The world’s biggest market sadly shrinks because of Brexit–U.S., Canada and even China focus on aggressive effort for 2030–Companies, too, get on board By Mathew Carr Dec. 14-21, 2020 — LONDON: Britain is calling for countries to partner with its proposed new carbon market as it leaves the European Union’s program and its touted price aligns with other nations. It’s a terribly sad state of affairs that the EU market is shrinking as the fractured world seeks to align on its climate effort during the next several years. While the U.K. has saidContinue reading “RECAST EXCLUSIVE: Richer Net Zero Countries Tout 2030 Carbon Prices That Align (4)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 12, 2020 — LONDON: The world’s most populous nation said it would reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 65% by 2030 vs 2005 levels, a new and ambitious target. Nations held a virtual climate ambition summit Saturday ahead of a Dec. 31, 2020 deadline by which countries should tighten their climate contributions to the Paris climate agreement. See this:https://www.climateambitionsummit2020.org/index.php#programme China would boost use of renewable power so non-fossil fuel primary energy would reach 25% by 2030, said Chinese president Xi Jinping, speaking at the virtual Climate Ambition Summit. The nation would increase theContinue reading “China Proposes to Cut CO2 per Unit of GDP 65% by 2030 as Other Nations Tighten Climate Pledges (3)”

–The U.K. could store EU emissions for 18 years, handy when Europe’s seeking net zero by 2050 By Mathew Carr Dec. 11-13, 2020 — LONDON: Contracts for difference, measures being considered in climate policy circles to help decarbonize industry, have already pulled offshore-wind-energy investment forward in Britain. They could now help to level the “state-aid” playing field after Brexit in sectors other than energy, as well as speed global decarbonization. “The U.K. is already using CfD contracts in the space of renewable energy and has the expertise to extend them to other technologies,” according to report published by Vivid EconomicsContinue reading “OPINION: Clever Climate Contracts Already Levelled the Energy Playing Field and They Could Help Ease Brexit (2)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 11, 2020 — LONDON : Four former United Nations climate diplomats are getting a little undiplomatic. Four senior UN figures have outlined in an opinion piece what’s going on with global climate protection and why. No one comes away unscathed, even the UN process itself. Richard Kinley, Michael Zammit Cutajar, Yvo de Boer and Christiana Figueres co-authored a piece published on Taylor & Francis online. See link below. Here are some highlights, comments on the dire climate situation …and a splash of hope: ‘For the global North, it challenges complacent democracies to look beyond their electoralContinue reading “Climate Diplomats Get Undiplomatic in Public: The ‘Dark Cloud’ Hanging Over the UNFCCC: T&F (1)”

By Mathew Carr Dec. 10-11, 2020 — LONDON: European Union carbon allowances advance to a record Friday after member nations agreed to cut emissions by at least 55% vs 1990 levels by the end of the decade. The previous target was for a 40% cut. Futures for December 2021 rise to about 31.30 euros a ton, according to ICE Futures Europe, before easing back. The previous record was 31 euros, a level matched Thursday. A tighter target means a smaller supply of allowances and when they become more scarce they also become more valuable. Other factors are boosting prices. ThereContinue reading “European Carbon Advances to Record High as EU Agrees Tighter 2030 Target (3)”

By Mathew Carr NEWS/OPINION: Nov. 10-11, 2020 — LONDON: Big emission cuts hinge on three technologies and how they link together, and on how the biggest countries incentivise them. The world — big emitters the EU, the U.S. and China at least — seems to be, finally, getting on board, but it still might be too late. Natural gas, carbon capture and hydrogen, working together, are set to change the world, cutting emissions, according to an influential group advising the British government. Number 1 technology: Gas will provide a bridge to much lower emissions, but ONLY if it’s used toContinue reading “UPDATED: The 3 New Friends of Aggressive Climate Action, Their 2 Enablers: What it Means for Investors Globally (2)”

By Mathew Carr EXCLUSIVE: Dec. 9-10, 2020 — LONDON: Britain has tightened its emissions-reduction target for 2030 quite dramatically, but arguably it should be much tighter still. This chart shows that based on historical responsibility and its capability, Britain should be going for a cut of about 91% by 2030 if the world is serious about limiting global warming to 1.5C. That is one-third stricter than what it is going for — a 68% cut: Check out the small green line on the top right. Here is the open source document, cited in the chart:https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054005/pdf The ‘Greenhouse Development Rights’ (GDR)Continue reading “The U.K. 2030 Emissions Target ‘Should be’ One-Third Stricter – a 91% Cut, Perhaps (1)”

By Mathew Carr Nov. 9, 2020 — LONDON: Should the U.K. build its own carbon market, it might get very small very quickly. Britain is due to Brexit at the end of the month and last-minute wrangling continues. It’s new CO2 market may link in with the EU emissions trading system, the world’s biggest carbon market. See this chart published Wednesday by the U.K.’s Climate Change Committee: See this story:https://carrzee.org/2020/11/26/exclusive-heres-a-brexit-idea-from-a-key-carbon-market-player-keep-britain-in-the-eu-emissions-trading-system/

By Mathew Carr  Dec. 9, 2020 — LONDON: Britain is tackling one of the hardest parts of its energy transition in the mid 2030s, and it’s finding a way to shield taxpayers/consumers/voters from the huge shifts in store for them. Taken separately, some of the numbers look enormous, and politically scary. The country is set to raise 27 billion pounds ($36 billion) a year via a 75 pounds a ton carbon price across most domestic sectors. That price is about double current levels — at the moment the country’s carbon price does not apply to transport and household emissions. ItContinue reading “Britain’s Cunning Plan to Take the Political Sting Out of Massive Emission Cuts (1)”

By Mathew Carr Nov. 8, 2020: LONDON — Emissions reductions by the EU since 1990 were achieved because of a fall in the greenhouse gas output of lower-and-middle-income Europeans, while pollution produced by the richest 10% rose, charity group Oxfam revealed. Tackling an inequality of blame for the climate crisis is key to delivering the new EU 2030 climate target, which is due to be discussed by EU leaders later this week, the group said in a report. “Confronting Carbon Inequality in the European Union” is based on research conducted with the Stockholm Environment Institute on the consumption emissions of different income groupsContinue reading “Poorer Europeans Cut Emissions as Richest Boost Transport Pollution (1)”

–U.K. climate push tainted by overseas development aid cut: former UNFCCC leader –Climate being added to profit in goal of markets By Mathew Carr Dec. 6-8, 2020 — LONDON: Markets have evolved for decades, but the evolution over the next 10 years is looking like it might resemble something more like a revolution. Britain’s plan to cut emissions by 68% in the four decades to 2030 seems improbably ambitious. Up until now goals have been much-less punchy. What has made such deep cuts possible for the U.K. has been its higher carbon prices. With its so-called “carbon floor support,” Britain’sContinue reading “Capitalism 2.0 in Sight But Here’s Why We are Not Quite There Yet (3)”