Opinion by Mathew Carr

Jan. 29, 2024 — It’s getting hotter, that much is clear. Just how hot depends where you focus your attention. The world is failing to prevent worldwide heating, especially in the north.

Looking globally — in 2023 we were close to 1.5C above pre-industrial times.

Source: https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2023

If you look at regions, things are even worse (though the data providers seem a little unsure of what to say and when to say it).

See this NOAA data that now allows you to analyse the 12 months through December 2023.

Daily sea surface temperatures are about 0.5C above where they are usually are about this time of year in January 2024 — near levels usually seen only in August. I’m assuming Northern Hemisphere data is more reliable that Southern Hemisphere info and better than sea surface data (please correct me if I’m wrong at mathew@carrzee.net)

That indicates 2024 could not only breach the 1.5C limit but also breach the 2C limit

Highlight of the jump in red, 2023 in orange

Source: Sea surface data would indicate temperatures already pushing the 2C limit sought by the Paris climate deal struck back in 2015.

If you look at North American average temperatures in the 12 months through December, they are about 2.3C ABOVE the 1900-1930 average (conservatively): NOAA

Highlights for North America in dashed red circles / ovals

It’s weird how NOAA EXCLUDES 1850-1910

Source Noaa … and 2023 was WARMER than 2016, the previous record.

Africa is looking like ~1.7C above the 1910-1930 average in 2023 (12 months through Dec.) … and the fact that NOAA does not include the 1850-1900 data is interesting (data collection would not have been complete, I assume)

Africa’s base temperature is higher vs North America I assume — 1850-1910 data is ASLO EXCLUDED for this region

Highlights in red.

World surface temperatures remain 4C below July-August levels, which is a relief: but still edging out of the top of the range for this time of year

The scariest data

The biggest portion of people in the world live in Asia …and that’s where temperatures seem to have gained about 2.5C in the 12 months through Dec. vs 1910-1930

Begs the question — how much have they gained since 1850-1900 — again data seems sketchy??

Southern Hemisphere land is “only” about 1.3C above the 1850-1900 average … which I find somewhat comforting (yet I still err on the side of being worried, overall, for the world)

Northern Hemisphere is where the heat-trapping gas is most potent, where fossil fuels are used most — and I seem to remember temperature gets trapped there — ~1.7C above in 2023 vs 1850-1900

Comments my way to mathew@carrzee.net

(Corrects garble in headline)