By Mathew Carr

March 30, 2024. Carbon credits are jumping while EU futures, already much higher, are not rising as much.

Corsia:

MSCI a day ago (LinkedIn):

Yesterday we were proud to publish our long-awaited price forecasts for carbon credits that could be tradable under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Knowing the likely future price of these credits will be extremely important for:

(a) Governments as they grapple with complying with their NDCs and start to charge for authorising Corresponding Adjustments
(b) Airlines as they look to meet obligations in CORSIA, which will require Article 6 eligible credits
(c) Corporates looking to demonstrate high integrity climate action.

Our modelling uses a world-renowned Integrated Assessment Model together with our unique geo-spatial economic modelling of the land-use sector. We model four NGFS emission and policy scenarios ranging from Business as Usual, current NDCs and deeper emission reduction pathways. The analysis also models multiple sensitivities to assess the impact on price of different countries participating or in the Article 6 credit market.

The full report is available to subscribers, but in summary, if the market functions efficiently Article 6 prices could be in the range $36 – 45/tCO2e in 2030 and $43 – 54/t by 2035. Governments should start to consider these as reference prices as they look to authorise the export of credits with Corresponding Adjustments.

Get in touch with our team for more information: carbonmarkets@msci.com.

#CarbonProjects#CarbonCredits#geospatial

EU Carbon not jumping as much: Barchart

Quantum

Carbon Pulse

Guyana