–CarrZee and friends look into 2024
Opinion by Mathew Carr
Jan. 4-8, 2024 — The deliberate callousness and cowardice are quite startling.
Israel and its bribed mates in the west are deliberately extending the genocide in Gaza to prolong their brutal, uncaring regimes that enrich a chosen few.
The west is resisting an era of BRICS+ alternatives that show the world how political and economic systems don’t have to be so eroding of progress toward a more-fair-and-just global economy, according to me and credible thought leader Kathleen Tyson.
Capitalism and politics do not have to be so messed up.
China has already shown one way, combining social guardrails and 21st century capitalism. (This data in the chart below through 2019, from Tyson’s book, Multicurrency Mercantilism [2023 Granularity] shows how China’s per person economic production jumped more than 30 times in three decades versus five times in India and about three in the. U.S.).
I’m not saying China’s system is perfect.
The wars in east Asia — and other regions around the world — are distracting politicians because they create uncertainty that delays decision making as governments try to simultaneously grapple with non-war problems. They are boosting the spend on military equipment instead of on climate change and nature protection, for instance.
“If the world now chooses to experiment with different monetary and economic policies, we should welcome the experimentation,” Tyson said in her book.
“I am a fan of diversity and think global regulatory harmonisation has actually been a disaster,” Tyson said Thursday last week.
It’s better to have policies compete against each other so the best ones win.
Tyson:
“Bad policies don’t get compared to better, and when failure comes, the same bad regulators are the ‘experts’ called in to fix it. They usually double down on the same bad policies that caused the crisis, leading to worse.
“China, Russia, Costa Rica, Lithuania, and others all have different economies, different strategies, different interests, different policies. That is something to celebrate and measure and calibrate for better policies everywhere.”
Tyson cites India as providing a further example of how the world can improve in 2024, using a method that seems to stem from China’s belt and road initiative — where countries help each other to improve trade and cultural links. Non reliance on the US dollar may be the result.
A new type of collaboration between countries works by “identifying a national need and matching it with another state or non-state actor’s existing outperformance, capacity and willingness to invest,” Tyson said in her book.
The India example:
DP World, a multinational logistics company based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates decided to invest $510 million in India’s Deendayal Port Authority after the two countries identified a need to improve the country’s ability to sell goods and commodities internationally.
“India gets improved global export capacity to modern standards of artificial-intelligence-assisted speed and efficiency, and DP World gets another port on its network as a mature and trusted operator,” Tyson said, showing the “multicurrency mercantilism win win.”
Tyson’s hopefulness is contagious. Even the horrible geopolitical situation in Gaza might give way to something better: massively ambitious projects that not only change the world, but help protect it.
Examples
- A plan to build a huge canal through Israel near Gaza to rival the Suez Canal could usher in an era of cheaper international trade, according to a person familiar with the Suez passage that’s currently suffering from the effects of attacks by Houthi rebels related to regional violence. I spoke to the person last month at climate talks in Dubai.
- The New Delta plan to flood part of Egypt to create a huge new agricultural area might help curb sea-level rise, boost food output and provide hydro power.
- Brazil has already shown how to substantially cut deforestation in the Amazon in a few short months.
So, while the killing of children, women and men in Ukraine and Gaza seems to deliberately want to extend the questionable era of Russian and US tension over whether communism or capitalism is best, those violent colonialist-era moves just might be in the process of backfiring.
Disgust with US behavior in supporting Israel’s genocide and because the nation is using its dollar as a weapon via sanctions on Russia and others has instead further isolated the world’s biggest economy.
Other countries are stepping up. The wars in west Asia are indeed speeding the shift toward a multipolar world.
Qatar and Egypt has shown tremendous leadership in trying to end the Gaza death.
Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined the BRICS country grouping on January 1. The BRICS+ nations now encompass about a third of the world’s land surface and 45% of the global population.
The awful behavior in Gaza just might strengthen global leadership this year by making it more diverse. Multilateral guardrails will be underpinned and acknowledged as a much-needed curb on wicked behavior by any government (and strengthened institutions for legal and social justice are better than firearms).
In my probably-naive brain, Russia will end it’s war in Ukraine during the next few months after “the West” properly acknowledges its role in helping win the second-world war for “the western alliance”.
The US has held its dominant role in the world the past eight decades because it grabbed much of the credit for winning that 1939-1945 conflict.
This acknowledgement by the EU and the US would amount to a crucial reconciliation with Russia and would bring the world to a better place in 2024.
Google Bard created this context for me, which is worth repeating:
The Second World War: A Devastating Loss for Russia
The human cost of the Second World War in the Soviet Union, which included Russia, was staggering. Estimates range from 26.6 million to 27 million people killed, representing a significant portion of the country’s population at the time and about one third of the total deaths. This makes it the deadliest conflict in Russian history and one of the most devastating in human history.
Determining Russia’s contribution to the Allied victory is complex and multifaceted. Here are some key points to consider:
Soviet Losses and sacrifices:
- The Soviet Union bore the brunt of the fighting on the Eastern Front, facing the bulk of the German army for most of the war. This resulted in immense casualties: soldiers, civilians, and entire communities ravaged by the conflict.
- The Soviet resistance and resilience ultimately played a crucial role in bleeding the German army and diverting resources from other fronts. This significantly contributed to the eventual Allied victory.
Military and Industrial Support:
- The Soviet Union supplied troops, tanks, aircraft, and other military equipment to the Allied war effort. This material aid, particularly on the Eastern Front, is undeniable.
- Soviet industry, despite suffering immense damage itself, played a vital role in producing war materiel, not just for its own forces but also for its allies.
Geopolitical Impact:
- The Soviet Union’s entry into the war changed the geopolitical landscape. It forced Germany to fight on two fronts, stretching its resources and ultimately contributing to its downfall.
- The Soviet Union’s role in defeating Nazi Germany undoubtedly shifted the global power balance in the aftermath of the war, shaping the Cold War era and beyond.
Beyond a Simple “West vs. East” Narrative:
- It’s important to remember that the Second World War was a global conflict and attributing victory solely to either “the West” or “Russia” is an oversimplification. Many nations and countless individuals contributed to the Allied victory.
- Reducing the complex historical narrative of the war to a simplistic binary framework is unhelpful and often inaccurate. Recognizing the multifaceted and nuanced roles of different participants is crucial to understanding the conflict’s complexities.
Conclusion:
The Soviet Union, including Russia, suffered tremendously in the Second World War, enduring immense human loss and devastation. Its contributions to the Allied victory, in terms of military engagement, industrial support, and geopolitical impact, were undeniable. However, acknowledging these crucial contributions should not overshadow the sacrifices of other nations.
Beyond the Ukraine conflict, reconciliation in Gaza can start within months with a decision of the International Court of Justice. Israel will be required and will retreat to its territory designated by international law.
Prior to the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel’s internationally recognized borders were established by the 1949 Armistice Agreements with neighboring Arab states. These borders included the areas of West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem, which were not part of Israel. (Google Bard)
The key ICJ legal forum on Gaza is getting underway in just a few days, when South Africa (a BRICS country) confronts Israel and US actions.
Aljazeera: “The move is the latest in a long list of actions that Pretoria has taken since the start of the war on Gaza, including loudly and persistently condemning Israel’s attacks on Gaza and the West Bank, recalling the South African ambassador from Israel, referring the suffering of Palestinians to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and calling for an extraordinary meeting of BRICS countries to deliberate the conflict. The ICC takes on cases of alleged crimes committed by individuals, not states.”
South African authorities confirmed last week that the ICJ has fixed a hearing for January 11-12. other countries are showing support.
South China Morning Post: Malaysia has thrown its weight behind South Africa’s case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel’s “genocidal” acts in Gaza, calling the lawsuit a “timely step” towards ensuring accountability.
Hope?
So, 2024 might be more hopeful than many people expect right now and not just because of the potential end to the major bouts of killing.
As Tyson concludes in her book, leadership by emerging countries (including via the model adopted by BRICS+ countries) “could scale globally without materially challenging Western capital markets because it happens at the margins, bilaterally, in markets largely excluded from Western finance.”
“If we see faster growth and more equitable development in BRICS+ economies, we have proof that better is possible because better has been delivered.”
(More to come)
See Tyson’s book snipped below, other notes.
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