Reporting and opinion by Mathew Carr

Dec. 1-4, 2023 — Fossil fuels may still make up one third of today’s levels in 2050 … much more removals will be happening by then (fingers crossed).

By 2100, fossil fuels may be all but phased out, under a special scenario outlined below.

All of the hype in the media on Monday about the need to urgently phase out fossil fuels is just that — hype that ignores the long-term trajectories and underplays the net-zero science.

The mainstream press seems to ignore the climate science of removals – natural removals via photosynthesis, engineered ones (carbon capture storage [CCS], direct-air capture [DAC] and farmed removals (such as via use of biochar). I agree the climate crisis is urgent because we are not on the right trajectory, especially over the next 10 years.

Al Gore/Guardian/Rishi Sunak seem misguided, or deliberately misleading:

Agreement to phase out fossil fuels would be huge for humanity, says Gore https://t.co/uhrBC36lPN

— The Guardian (@guardian) December 4, 2023

Rishi Sunak accused of hypocrisy after backing phase-out of fossil fuels at Cop28 https://t.co/j8W4qfJZ4R

— The Guardian (@guardian) December 2, 2023

Dear Damian – the Sultan has a point … why are you not explaining the net-zero science to your readers? If you do this, it will make the shorter term political decisions easier won't it? Serious question. It will make your readers feel less scared!https://t.co/t4OkCZxTnY

— Mathew Carr (@carrzee) December 4, 2023

The COP28 boss is right and the Times is misleading its readers because it does not explain the science listed below. Indeed it has to be said that the COP28 boss is also not doing as best he can because he is declining to explain the net-zero science — see below:

https://apple.news/AnBeLP69ST6K1_c47aRMwWw

Key bit of the Shell blog linked below:

📸 Look at this post on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/yjiNf8kjrWTmXTNM/?mibextid=K35XfP

Shell’s Sky 2050 scenario assumes climate action gets going. Net positive emissions of about zero (about 22 billion tons emitted and 22 billion absorbed).

Net negative 15-17 billion tons GHG/year (about 26 billion absorbed, 9 billion emitted)

Summary of Shell Sky 2050 scenario — ~16 billion tons a year being absorbed from atmosphere in 2050

Summary of Shell Sky 2050 in 2100 — ~26 billion tons a year being absorbed from atmosphere

It has to be said Shell is not phasing down much yet — and the climate risks we have are very much in the short term if we don’t get on this trajectory quickly.

CarrZee pincer chart from April last year:

NOTE: It turns out my 2022 chart exaggerated the ability of removals to remove GHG from the atmosphere …both in 2022 and the potential in 2030 vs’s Shell’s scenario — but the gist was / is still correct…yet who knows what we might achieve if we try harder to shift the market rules toward climate justice?

Carbon Pincer Chart Shows Net Zero is Easier Than Many Expect (4)