—7,000 lives lost? in Nepal alone; E3G, broken hearts

Opinion by Mathew Carr*

Sept. 24-25, 2026 — Almost all commentators on sovereign-debt markets are underestimating the impact of climate needs.

The probable sovereign-spending surge of trillions of US dollars will be needed and soon because there are scary temperature jumps happening right now…including 0.3 of a degree Celsius in 2026 v 2025 for world sea-surface temperatures. That is an AVERAGE RISE in one year.

Reckless leaders need reigning in.

The climate spending needs are competing against trillions of dollars of ‘investment’ sought for giant warmongering/security campaigns and massive global and regional AI propaganda machines.

The benefits of big-money flows on climate mitigation (eg renewables) and adaptation such as flood defences run for decades (and include a lower risk of wars) … but up-front costs are enormous versus the lower up-front and ongoing fuel costs of traditional, climate-killing energy.

International Energy Agency and developing countries are calling for multi-trillions of US dollars PER YEAR to transition economies and get the climate crisis under control. See Nepal example below, **.

See these charts for cause and effect.

Higher temperatures means bigger borrowing means higher levels of financial risk (of default) is my simple logic.

Comments my way. Mathew@carrzee.net

World sea surface

Closer look at that 2025-2026 gap higher

Nino 3.4 threatens all time high two months early, third orange circle below is 2015 (current record) …the gapping up is scary because temperatures rose considerably September to November in 2015. What if the 2026 line takes on the same shape in the next three months? See the two tables below.

Closer look 2026 (red) v 2015 (grey) …2025 (orange) is more than 3C lower!

At least the world surface temperature isn’t jumping quite as fast — but it’s still scary

Ballistic 10-year bonds

US — 10-year view

Later Thursday —one-week view

Germany

Japan

(Adds context from E3G below)

*in London

Notes

Comment sent today from environmental lobby group E3G (Kaysie Brown):

People are preparing for doom

Nepal example

From E3G at NY climate week, unedited and unchecked:

“Today, the United Nations Foundation, DanChurchAid, E3G, and Talanoa Institute convened a high-level event “Adapting to the new climate reality: Why accelerating impacts demand new responses,” moderated by Megan Rowling, Editor of Climate Home News, during High-level Week of the 81st UN General Assembly.

The Director of the Office of Climate Change at the UN Environment Programme opened the dialogue urging the international community to respond with adaptation and action on loss-and-damage financing as climate impacts grow.

Representatives from governments, multilateral funds, businesses, and civil society shared perspectives on what countries and international institutions must deliver ahead of COP 31.

The critical conversation comes as communities worldwide confront floods, droughts, and extreme heat.

Speakers from the Prime Minister of Nepal’s Office discussed the recent floods and landslides in Nepal, triggered by glacial collapse, which have taken over 1,000 lives — with more than 6,000 people still missing — and left the country with an estimated $5 billion recovery bill.

Nepal estimates that implementing adaptation priorities could require $18 to $20 billion in international climate finance between 2025 and 2035. 

Compounding these real-world impacts, a new report from the UN Environment Programme concludes that temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C temperature limit is now unavoidable.

Despite this, keeping the 1.5°C goal remains critical, as every fraction of a degree above it escalates the risks of extreme weather, irreversible losses, and dangerous tipping points.”

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