Opinion and reporting by Mathew Carr
May 15-16, 2025 — It’s time for President Donald Trump to offer some big concessions, after apparently extracting some very large ones from other countries, around the world.
Otherwise, what he yearns for — massive investment into the USA — is at risk.
To lower that risk:
- He should offer to attend the Turkey talks Friday on Ukraine (unconditionally) — this will probably force Putin to show up.
- He should concede on climate and nature protection (the really important imperatives behind much of the past two months of global trade ructions … and the past four years of war/terror/genocide in Ukraine/Palestine).
Countries have boosted their urgency of trade negotiations and, for that, Trump deserves some credit. While the EU begun the global trade round by imposing a carbon border adjustment mechanism (tariffs on polluting products, if you like) …Trump has speeded up that process.
Thursday, Germany agreed to up its defence spending to 5% of GDP (a big concession) and India and the EU are apparently playing “Trump’s game” on trade deals (actually, it is the EU’s game, yet they, too, are huge concessions).
Trump is publicly ignoring the behind-the-scenes climate and nature negotiations for a stronger Paris climate deal as he skips around the Middle East glad handing with other petro states — all the while, he’s actually America’s chief climate negotiator.
And his big secret is slowly being exposed.
While he is pretending the US is big enough to go it alone on global trade, it isn’t…especially when the world starts to impose big tariffs on US social media, Netflix, Uber, Amazon etc.
There is still a risk that the USA will be isolated for much of the next five years, unless it changes its tune on sustainability.
Americans consume too much stuff and Trump is pretending the likes of India and Europe want to match that wasteful lifestyle. They simply don’t (but there is some truth that many countries want to head somewhat in the direction of American buying of stuff).
This consumption can be made much less damaging to climate and nature via tech that is already available. Use of it just needs to be incentivized by substantial tweaks to global market rules.
That is, national rules need align to prevent countries like the USA from taking advantage of everyone else. That is what America has been doing for 35 years.
Trump has pitched America’s overconsumption as a “trade imbalance” where the US is somehow an international victim. Yet, it is actually the villain — so that’s gaslighting the world and, if that strategy wasn’t so sinister, it would be clever.
(Btw Trump’s strategy is arguably following Putin, who is also pretending angel status because he’s fighting an aggressive NATO, while stealing land that isn’t his. ‘Trump’s’ BlackRock, for instance, wants to effectively steal land in Ukraine and Palestine after doing so across much of the world the past few decades….when I say stealing I mean exploiting bad market structure and influencing politicians against the interests of their own people.)
It’s a lasagne of lies (citing @TonyMarrese on X)
Now Europe has begun to call Trump out (softly) for failing to collaborate properly.
“States not fulfilling the Paris Agreement should not participate in Paris carbon markets,” Dana Ruddigkeit, a German environment ministry official and climate policy expert, tells me by email. “Moreover, I am saying states that do not enforce their own national environmental laws should not participate either. Paris Agreement mechanisms should not ignore or even incentivize violating environmental protection standards.”
Ruddigkeit did not single out the USA, which plans to pull out of the Paris deal on Jan. 20, keeping her comments broad.
National environmental laws are often related to obligations in multilateral environmental agreements like the Convention on Biological Diversity or Vienna Convention [for the Protection of the Ozone Layer], she said. She was initially commenting on a new UN carbon market being created under article 6.4 of Paris, which could become one of the world’s biggest.
Participation in Paris is key because countries failing to do so will be locked out of multilateral trade deals in the future… or they at least will face less favorable terms within those deals.
So, the implication of Germany’s comments is clear.
Trump’s America won’t attract the foreign investment that it needs if it retains its stance as a nature-killing warmonger. That stance is only being tolerated right now because everyone knows it’s kind of a Trump negotiation stance (even though most of the press don’t often report it as such).
America’s stance outside the near-completely global collaboration to limit emissions under the Paris climate deal struck in 2015 will cut it off from investment flows that stem from that collaboration.
Countries will increasingly struggle to justify allowing their banks, insurers, funds and companies to invest in places like America that lay outside the collaboration for a more sustainable world.
Curbing wasteful spending on war is a key part of that, especially now that (pretty much) everyone has agreed to increase that wasteful spending to a certain extent.
Trump has arguably won that so it’s up to you, Mr Trump, to hold your side of the secret grand bargain.
Should you not at least try to strike the ultimate deal this week for peace … after saying that you might?
Yes you should.
After all, Istanbul IS already on your route home via the UK from the UAE. See my TikTok on Trump’s movements today (Friday), below.
Notes
Trump’s Friday schedule
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZNdr2X8CP/
Times of London
BBC :
Grok (unedited) on likelihood of Trump turning up Friday in Turkey — less than a 10% chance:
I apologize for the confusion—my previous response didn’t include a specific percentage like “less than 10%” for May 16-17, as I don’t have a prior question from you with that context. However, I’ll assess the likelihood of President Donald Trump traveling to Turkey today (May 15, 2025) or tomorrow (May 16, 2025) to meet delegations from Ukraine and Russia, based on the provided search results and current information. I’ll also clarify why the probability is low and address your reference to May 16-17.
Assessment of Trump Traveling to Turkey on May 15 or 16, 2025
Current Context:
- Trump’s Schedule: Trump is currently in the Middle East, with confirmed stops in Doha, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on May 15, and he is scheduled to return to Washington, D.C., on May 16. His itinerary is packed, and adding a last-minute trip to Turkey would require significant logistical adjustments.
- Russia-Ukraine Talks in Turkey: Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine are underway in Istanbul, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky present. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not attending, sending a lower-level delegation instead, which has diminished the talks’ significance.
- Trump’s Statements: On May 15, Trump reiterated in Qatar that he might travel to Turkey on May 16 “if it would be appropriate,” suggesting his attendance depends on significant progress in the talks. Earlier, on May 14, he downplayed the likelihood, citing his full schedule and the unlikelihood of Putin’s attendance.
- White House Position: On May 14, White House officials confirmed Trump would not attend the talks, ending speculation after Putin’s absence was confirmed. This suggests a firm decision unless new developments arise.
- U.S. Representation: Trump has dispatched senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to Istanbul for the talks, indicating he is relying on his team rather than attending personally.
Factors Influencing the Likelihood:
- Putin’s Absence: Zelensky has insisted on meeting Putin directly, framing Putin’s attendance as a test of Russia’s commitment to peace. Putin’s decision to send a lower-level delegation reduces the talks’ weight, making it less likely for Trump to prioritize attending.
- Trump’s Priorities: Trump’s Middle East trip focuses on securing business deals and diplomatic engagements (e.g., nuclear deal talks with Iran and AI ambitions in the UAE). These commitments appear to take precedence over a last-minute detour to Turkey.
- Logistical Constraints: Trump’s schedule is described as “too full” to incorporate another stop easily. Traveling from Qatar or the UAE to Turkey and back to Washington within 48 hours would be challenging, especially without a compelling reason like a major breakthrough.
- Diplomatic Signals: The presence of Rubio and Trump’s envoys in Turkey suggests the U.S. is adequately represented. Trump’s earlier enthusiasm for attending (e.g., on May 12, saying he was “thinking about flying over”) has waned as the talks’ scope narrowed.
- Public Sentiment on X: Posts on X from May 15 reflect skepticism about Trump’s travel, with some noting Putin’s “snub” by not attending and others calling Trump’s potential trip a “long shot.” This aligns with the reduced momentum for his attendance.
Probability Estimate:
- Today, May 15, 2025: The chance of Trump traveling to Turkey today is extremely low, likely under 5%. He is in Qatar, engaged in high-profile meetings, and the talks in Turkey are already underway with his envoys present. No sources indicate a same-day travel plan, and his schedule doesn’t allow for it.
- Tomorrow, May 16, 2025: The chance of Trump traveling tomorrow is also low, around 5-10%. While he left the door open for a Friday trip “if appropriate,” the lack of Putin’s attendance and the absence of reported breakthroughs reduce the incentive. His return to Washington is scheduled, and White House officials have already signaled he won’t attend. A last-minute change would require a significant development (e.g., Putin agreeing to attend or a major negotiation milestone), which seems unlikely based on current information.
Clarification on May 16-17 Reference:
You mentioned a “less than 10%” probability for May 16-17, but I don’t have a prior response from you with that figure, and my current response is the first addressing this specific question. It’s possible you’re referring to a different interaction or source. However, my estimate for May 16 (5-10%) aligns closely with a low-probability scenario for similar reasons: Trump’s commitments, Putin’s absence, and U.S. representation by envoys. For May 17, the probability would be even lower (near 0%), as Trump is expected to be back in Washington, and the talks are centered on May 15-16. If you meant May 16-17 specifically, please confirm, and I can refine the analysis, though the talks’ timeline makes May 17 irrelevant unless extended.
Conclusion:
The chance of Trump traveling to Turkey on May 15 or 16, 2025, to meet Ukraine and Russia delegations is very low:
- May 15: Under 5%, due to his Middle East engagements and the talks proceeding without him.
- May 16: Approximately 5-10%, contingent on an unlikely major breakthrough prompting a last-minute trip.
If new developments emerge (e.g., Putin’s attendance or a significant agreement), the probability could increase, but no such indications exist as of now. If you have additional details or meant a different context for the “10%” figure, please clarify, and I’ll adjust the analysis
Putin as an angel: WordPress AI