—US strategy to weaken Europe can’t win
REPORTING AND OPINION By Mathew Carr
Dec. 30-31, 2024 — BERLIN — The industrial success of Germany demonstrates that ending war can give Ukraine a global leg up….if only America and Russia would stop warmongering to let it happen.
It’s understandable the US ended up jealous of Germany’s industrial, financial and environmental success.
Germany got clean powerhouse status until the US provoked war
America/NATO’s 2022 Ukraine war weakened Germany’s access to cheap Russian natural gas.
The death of US President Jimmy Carter will hopefully give Donald Trump pause to consider a thing or two about diplomacy and legacy —- how to make peace in the world — like Carter did, sort of. And how to make capitalism better.
By making human rights a U.S. foreign-policy priority for the first time, Carter strengthened democracy in Latin America. (WSJ)
World leaders can and should now restore people power to Ukraine and Palestine…and other flashpoints including Sudan….by further restoring the human rights of the people.
However unlikely it seems…Trump and Putin can restore some dignity for the US and Russia by handing power to taxpayers. This will boost their popularity and legitimacy after years of oligarchy …and ultimately will lift their legacies. They will be seen as the strongmen who came good for the people.
Carter laid the foundation for President Ronald Reagan’s military buildup while negotiating a nuclear-disarmament treaty with the Soviet Union, later implemented by Reagan and the Soviets (WSJ).
Carter respected the institutions of government and the free press, no matter how brutal its coverage. (WSJ) Trump and Putin can learn from this, too.
In Berlin to visit historic spots and to research them, I’m left in no doubt Ukraine can avoid the pitfalls suffered by post WW2 Germany. (There is a somewhat similar story in Japan btw.)
Germany was too misogynistic (according to one local we spoke to) and Trump can curb his apparent bias against women…and his lionisation of bro culture.
The Berlin resident said women were required to ask their husbands if they could work. One man said you can as long as you clean one room of the house per day, she said.
Berlin was split after World War II because it was the capital of Nazi Germany, and the victorious Allied powers wanted to ensure that it could not rise as a center of aggression again.
The division was part of broader agreements among the Allies about how to administer post-war Germany.
Women were encouraged out of employment in the west.
There was further horrifying division when Israel was created.
These partitions were ultimately misguided and Ukraine and the Middle East can now avoid similar traps.
Key reasons for Berlin’s division:
1. Division of Germany into Occupation Zones:
• At the Yalta Conference (February 1945) and later at the Potsdam Conference (July-August 1945), the Allied powers (the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and later France) agreed to divide Germany into four occupation zones.
• Berlin, located deep within the Soviet zone, was also divided into four sectors, one for each Allied power, despite its geographic location.
2. Ideological Differences:
• The Allies had differing visions for Germany’s future. The Soviet Union wanted to establish a communist state, while the Western Allies (the U.S., U.K., and France) aimed to create a democratic and capitalist system.
• These ideological differences soon turned into open rivalry, leading to the broader Cold War.
3. Symbolic Importance:
• As the capital of Nazi Germany, Berlin was seen as symbolically important. Its division reflected the shared responsibility of the Allies in rebuilding and controlling post-war Germany.
4. Cold War Tensions:
• Over time, the relationship between the Soviet Union and the Western Allies deteriorated. The Soviets wanted to maintain strict control over their sector and spread communism, while the Western Allies sought to rebuild Germany and its economy.
• This rivalry eventually resulted in the formal division of Berlin into East Berlin (controlled by the Soviet Union) and West Berlin (controlled by the U.S., U.K., and France).
Aftermath:
• The division of Berlin became a flashpoint during the Cold War, culminating in the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961, which physically divided East and West Berlin until it fell in 1989.
This 50 years of geopolitical infighting can be avoided in Ukraine and Palestine …but I’m certainly not sure it will be …because Russia and US still seem to hold the false belief that war is necessary to project power … while trying to win trade advantages.
It’s not.
Russia is dissatisfied with the reported peace deal proposals on Ukraine from U.S. President-elect Trump’s team, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Dec. 29, according to state-owned TASS. (MSN)
—Earlier reports from the Wall Street Journal indicated that Trump’s team is considering a plan to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership by at least 20 years in exchange for continued Western arms supplies and the deployment of European peacekeepers to monitor a ceasefire.
—Lavrov said the proposal, as outlined in leaks and Trump’s Dec. 12 Time interview, suggests “freezing hostilities along the current line of contact and transferring the responsibility of confronting Russia to Europe.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Dec. 26 that Russia aims to “end the conflict” in 2025 while reiterating hopes for a front-line success. Following Putin’s comments, Lavrov ridiculed the possibility of a ceasefire, adding that “a ceasefire is a road to nowhere.”
Trump’s team has yet to outline officially any concrete steps for ending the war, despite his bold claims of achieving peace “within 24 hours.”
Rebuilding Ukraine can bring tremendous wealth to both Europe and Russia. That will benefit the US too.
Trump needs to stop pretending Europe needs to sort out the Ukraine war by itself …when the US provoked the conflict by expanding NATO over decades and derived huge financial benefit from it … Eg via huge LNG revenue.
This was part of America’s “energy dominance” strategy that inexcusably steals an unfair portion of the global carbon budget set by the Paris climate deal in 2015 … a clear theft from other nations.
This was also a long-term strategy by America to weaken Europe. And that, too, can’t be allowed to succeed.
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