Corsia carbon to rise at least 33% by 2026; might triple: MSCI

In case you missed it like I did, until now.

Price on ICE for futures is now $13.5 / ton.

MSCI: “Modeling by MSCI Carbon Markets suggests that CORSIA-eligible credits could see prices in the USD 18-51 range per tCO2e during Phase I [2024-2026] and USD 27-91 during the latter stages of Phase II (2033 to 2035).

[Warning: this forecast was made before COP29 outcome. Demand may shift to Article 6 credits]

At these prices, the costs to international airlines would be modest. If all costs were passed through to customers, the average international ticket price would rise by 0.5-1.0% during Phase I. Alternatively, if the whole cost of CORSIA compliance was to be absorbed by the airlines themselves, then Phase I could reduce their operating profits by up to 4%, though the impact on each individual airline is likely to vary materially.”