Mathew Carr

UK’s 81% Emissions Cut Ambition Seen Signalling Higher, Wider Carbon Prices in Budget

Opinion by Mathew Carr

Oct. 28, 2024 — The UK Climate Change Committee, which advises government on energy-transition policy, has published an ambitious recommended emission-reduction target of 81% target in 2035 vs 1990.

The target for the UN Paris climate deal process is a little stricter than that in the country’s own carbon budget, which is 78%. It’s one of the world’s most aggressive targets.

This could help boost ambition at climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month because poorer nations have been waiting for more greenhouse-gas-cutting action from the rich countries that are mostly to blame for the climate crisis.

The ambition may also hint at new climate measures that will raise funds in the British government budget — that’s set to be published Oct. 30, 2024.

That could mean more carbon pricing beyond factories and power stations, in other words in a wider cross section of the economy.

It could also mean higher carbon prices to speed the shift toward use of clean energy and away from fossil fuels. I’ve seen reporting that indicates higher fuel taxes, for instance.

In July, the committee said its assessment was that “only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the country’s 2030 target are currently covered by credible plans. Our 2030 target is the first one set in line with a Net Zero trajectory.”

To be sure, the UK carbon price is down more than 2% today as of 3:48pm in London…so the market does not seem to be expecting more ambition in the budget on Wednesday.

The market seems against this opinion, above. Note: climate measures beyond carbon markets can push carbon futures lower — because the carbon market then needs to do less of the emissions-cutting work.

Source doc: https://www.theccc.org.uk/2024/10/26/ccc-advises-81-reduction-in-emissions-by-2035/

CCC advises 81% reduction in emissions by 2035

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has offered advice on the level of the country’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UK Government, at the request of Secretary of State for Energy, Ed Miliband.

The CCC recommends that the UK’s NDC commits to reduce territorial greenhouse gas emissions by 81% from 1990 to 2035. This is based on the CCC’s advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, due to be published in February 2025. It is informed by the latest science, technological developments, and the UK’s national circumstances.

Professor Piers Forster, interim Chair of the Climate Change Committee, said:

“With climate damages already felt around the world, targeting an 81% emissions reduction by 2035 sets the right level of ambition. Our analysis shows this can be achieved in a way that benefits jobs and the economy, provided we hit the country’s 2030 target – set in line with the CCC’s advice in 2020.

“The technologies needed to achieve it are available, at a competitive price, today. Investment in low carbon technologies – electric vehicles, heat pumps, and renewables – needs to come now for this target to be achievable. Businesses will start to invest when they have confidence in what the Government’s long term policy plans are. We need to see the Government’s commitment to climate reflected in the upcoming Budget.”

“More than any commitment, what we really need is action. I have no doubt that the United Kingdom can once again be a leader on the international stage – in both deeds and words.”

Notes

  • The CCC’s advice on the NDC does not include international aviation and shipping (IAS) emissions in the target. This is in line with UNFCCC convention.
  • The 2030 NDC is a 68% reduction against 1990 levels. This also doesn’t include IAS emissions.
  • The CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget (published in 2020) includes the year 2035. The emissions reduction in the Sixth Carbon Budget for 2035 is 78% against 1990 levels. The Sixth Carbon Budget advice does include IAS emissions, and these emissions must be addressed to meet this target.
  • Today’s advice on the 2035 NDC is informed by the latest science, as required by the UNFCCC. Emissions accounting has changed slightly since the publication of the Sixth Carbon Budget. The recommended 81% is consistent with the ambition legislated in the Sixth Carbon Budget.

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