US Midterm Elections Could Upend Already-Weak Global Climate Action: Statista Chart (2)

By Mathew Carr

Oct. 20, 2022 (Updated Nov. 8)

CarrZee: U.S. midterm elections Nov. 8 2022 (today) could hurt the result of COP27 climate talks in Egypt, which are due to finish Nov. 18.

(They usually run overtime.)

The votes could hurt because the emerging world will be reluctant to move quickly on more aggressive climate policy unless the USA — most responsible for the climate crisis — is decisive about its policy direction.

The midterm results also may not be clear. Runoff elections are possible even after the end of climate talks, potentially voiding whatever the USA agrees in Egypt‘: CarrZee

Global climate action needs to be made a key issue in the US elections to ensure a clearer mandate for US negotiators in Egypt (if that is even possible).

[This has not happened as far as I’m aware]

EG see this from GPB News / PBS:

Two years ago, control of the U.S. Senate came down to Georgia, with two pivotal runoff election wins tipping the chamber’s favor into Democratic hands.

This fall, it’s possible the newly minted battleground state could again play a major role in how the Senate shakes out, with a marquee contest that, thanks to a third-party candidate, may not be decided until a runoff election a month after Nov. 8.

See this earlier MarketWatch story snip:


“It might take until December to find out if Democrats have kept their tenuous grip on the U.S. Senate.

That’s because one crucial Senate race is happening in Georgia, where state law requires a runoff election when no candidate wins a majority — often described as 50% plus one vote.

Related MarketWatch: These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate

And see MarketWatch: Republicans’ chances for taking control of Senate rebound to 46%, a level last seen about 8 weeks ago

Having to wait on Georgia would be a case of déjà vu for investors SPX, 0.30% and other election watchers. After the November 2020 elections, the state ran two Senate runoffs in January 2021 that Democrats won to take control of that chamber of Congress.”


Comments to mathew@carrzee.net

See this from Statista (Oct. 20)

Republicans Projected To Take House, Senate Still a Toss-up

2022 MIDTERMS

by Katharina Buchholz,Oct 20, 2022

With the midterm election a mere 2.5 weeks away and early voting already underway in many states, Republicans are projected to win back the House of Representatives, while the Senate is still a toss-up between the two parties. According to poll averages calculated by Real Clear Politics, Democrats would lose control of the lower chamber of Congress even if they won all 38 toss-up races. Only 176 seats were projected as safe or likely Democrat wins – too few to reach the House majority of 218.

Applying a different approach, polling site Five Thirty Eight assumes that out of 100 different scenarios for the House vote, Republicans would prevail in 75. For the Senate, the website’s model favors a Democratic win, however, giving the party a 61-out-of-100 chance.

According to Real Clear Politics, only one Republican House district is expected to likely flip Democratic: California’s 25th, where Raul Ruiz – Democratic incumbent from California’s 36th district – is projected to prevail. The Republican incumbent of the district, Mike Garcia, is also moving on to another district in the aftermath of the 2020 Census redistricting.

While CA36 is expected to remain Democratic in its new form, several other Democratic districts are not. Democratic incumbents who face a more Republican electorate due to redistricting include Tom O’Halleran of Arizona’s 2nd District as well as Tom Malinowski of New Jersey’s 7th District and Susan Wild of Pennsylvania’s 7th. The two latter Congresspeople already won by small margins over their opponents in 2020, both of whom are challenging them again. In Tennessee’s 5th District, long-term Democratic Congressman Jim Cooper announced his retirement upon the release of the new district map which skews more Republican. Florida’s 13th, the district of former Rep. Charlie Crist, who is challenging Florida governor Ron DeSantis this year, met the same fate. Neither of the Democratic candidates for Cooper’s and Crist’s successor are expected to prevail.

In the Senate, three seats held by Republicans are listed as toss-ups by Real Clear Politics, compared to four seats held by Democrats. The contests in question include Sen. Raphael Warnock highly publicized race against Trump-endorsed Republican Herschel Walker and the reelection bids of Democratic Senators Mark Kelly of Arizona, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

[Removed paid content Nov. 8, 2022]

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