U.K.’s Latest Estimate for 2030 Emissions Shows it’s Getting Greener — Much Slower Than it Promises (1)

By Mathew Carr

Aug. 8, 2022 — Britain’s emissions will be about 365 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2030, 4.5% less than a similar estimate made 5 years ago, according to its 8th “national communication” published by the UNFCCC overnight.


The problem for the UK is its emissions are meant to be 259 million tons in that year (2030), according to its single-year Paris climate target.

That is, GHG is meant to drop 68% by 2030 from 1990 levels.

The levels in 1990 were 810 million tons, according to the table above. (That baseline increased, making it easier to hit, btw.)

High fossil fuel prices will help cut emissions, but only to 341 million tons. See this:

The UK has a lot of work to do.


BASED ON a “fair share” of emissions, UK should be negative about 200 million tons by 2030.

Copyright Climate Action Tracker

UK NDC is here


See this from the UK govt advisor Climate Change Commitee (and full report at the bottom):

UNFCCC report on the UK– 8th national communication for download (misnamed 7th in the downloaded file):

CCC UK progress report for download:

(Corrects dateline to show Aug. 8)

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