Nigeria’s emissions will be as low as 244 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030, assuming international finance and support, according the country’s latest climate pledge (known as a nationally determined contribution).
It’s a stunning turnaround from 2017, where the best-case scenario was 494 million tons and baseline expectation 898 million tons.
THE NEW PROJECTION, published July 30, 2021, DOES ASSUME $177 BILLION IN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT.
Still, this money represents a drop in the ocean compared with the money being bandied about for the post-covid-pandemic recovery in rich nations.
Nigeria is crucial in the climate fight. It’s projected to be the world’s fourth biggest country by population (400 million souls) by 2050: World Bank data via Nigeria doc (see the new NDC, note 1 below).
The Difference a Few Years Make

NOTES
- https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Nigeria%20First/NIGERIA%202021%20NDC-FINAL.pdf
- Nigeria NDC page: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/Party.aspx?party=NGA (i tried to make this into a blue link, but my software wouldn’t let me, so please cut and paste … ah now it works a couple of hours later)