Biggest African Nation’s New Climate Pledge Sees 2030 Emissions 51% Below Best Scenario Published Just 4 Yrs Ago

Nigeria’s emissions will be as low as 244 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030, assuming international finance and support, according the country’s latest climate pledge (known as a nationally determined contribution).

It’s a stunning turnaround from 2017, where the best-case scenario was 494 million tons and baseline expectation 898 million tons.

THE NEW PROJECTION, published July 30, 2021, DOES ASSUME $177 BILLION IN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT.

Still, this money represents a drop in the ocean compared with the money being bandied about for the post-covid-pandemic recovery in rich nations.

Nigeria is crucial in the climate fight. It’s projected to be the world’s fourth biggest country by population (400 million souls) by 2050: World Bank data via Nigeria doc (see the new NDC, note 1 below).

The Difference a Few Years Make

NOTES

  1. https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Nigeria%20First/NIGERIA%202021%20NDC-FINAL.pdf
  2. Nigeria NDC page: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/Party.aspx?party=NGA (i tried to make this into a blue link, but my software wouldn’t let me, so please cut and paste … ah now it works a couple of hours later)

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