By Mathew Carr
Feb. 24, 2022: Carbon drops to 87.21 euros a ton, the lowest since Feb. 17, reversing yesterday’s smaller gains: ICE
The Russia – Ukraine war / operation could have a cooling impact on economic output and change government policy priorities away from climate protection (yet again, sigh).
Here are some Tweets, threads about the decline:
Ranked by Twitter as TOP for #EUETS hashtag
Someone sold 8 million spot EUAs this morning in a couple of trades cleared on @ICE_Markets – that's c. €700 million to you and me. #EUETS #OCTT
— CarbonReporter (@CarbonReporter) February 24, 2022
EUA plummet as much as 7.5% to an early morning low of €87.92 on news Russia has invaded Ukraine, while Dutch TTF has gone in the complete opposite direction, with the front end of the curve up almost 30%.#EUETS #OCTT
— Mike Szabo (@MikeSzaboCP) February 24, 2022
1/ Quick thoughts on #EUETS #CarbonCredits #Ukraine impact. I cannot see any significant impact on EUETS. High gas prices/low supply for longer = more coal burn = more emissions (than I forecast) = even more deficit. A recession wont make any significant ->#octt
— Lawson Steele (@LawsonSteele3) February 24, 2022
EU climate policy is based on:
— Jeff Berman (@jeffreydberman) February 24, 2022
– a degree of geopolitical stability
– access to nat gas, at least in the near-term.
The former has been upended; the latter now has massive strings attached.
Throw all prior #EUETS policy and price views out the window for now. #OCTT
EU carbon prices plunged as much as 7.5% in early trading today, front-month TTF prices were up more than 40% at one point as Russian forces crossed into Ukrainian territory & attacks were reported on Ukrainian military targets across the country https://t.co/HWRXc8xDHQ #EUETS
— Carbon Forward (@carbon_forward) February 24, 2022
📍We invite you to follow @ERCST_org event, where @RJeszke-CEO of @Climate_CAKE will take part in the discussion on Art. 29a #EUETS Directive – EU Measures in the event of excessive price fluctuations
— LIFE Climate CAKE PL & LIFE VIIEW 2050 (@climate_cake) February 24, 2022
✅25 Feb. @ 10.00
✅Reg. https://t.co/tP4j3qXldj#fitfor55 #EUA @PIK_Climate pic.twitter.com/O8clioTuSr
⚡ #OCTT #EUETS – After posting a nearly 6% rise yesterday, the EUAs are collapsing back this morning in a sharp bearish move likely induced by traders offloading EUAs to generate cash in order to keep their positions in the extremely volatile gas and power markets. pic.twitter.com/FdVmZONmt6
— ENGIE EnergyScan (@Energyscan_egm) February 24, 2022
This one is also interesting:
The #EUETS does not include #negativeemissions today.
— Eve Tamme (@EveTamme) February 24, 2022
Should it change? How?
Here's my latest blog post, looking into this topic slightly differently.
1/#climateprincipleshttps://t.co/TR9gqC36SP
And this:
How can coal-gas switching set #EUA prices when the gas comes with a humanitarian premium?
— Jeff Berman (@jeffreydberman) February 24, 2022
How can you be sure an Article29a intervention won't happen when consumer wallets are already hurting and will certainly hurt more?
These are the questions for 2022. #OCTT
Still going down..where would be the bottom? #EUA #EUETS #OCTT https://t.co/yhbWGVhaCy pic.twitter.com/m9H6sIEvkS
— Robert Jeszke (@RJeszke) February 24, 2022
EU's #netzero target of 2050 is legally binding, positioning #carbonmarkets at the helm of effective, long-term change. Last weekend, Dave Greely, Chief Economist of @Abaxx_Tech and @MCL1965 explored how #carbon pricing can build the smarter carbon markets we need. pic.twitter.com/ggDMyFSs2Z
— Smarter Markets (@Smarter_Markets) February 17, 2022
