EU Carbon Price Drops 8.3% as War Could Trim GDP: Tweets Indicate Market Puzzled

By Mathew Carr

Feb. 24, 2022: Carbon drops to 87.21 euros a ton, the lowest since Feb. 17, reversing yesterday’s smaller gains: ICE

The Russia – Ukraine war / operation could have a cooling impact on economic output and change government policy priorities away from climate protection (yet again, sigh).

Here are some Tweets, threads about the decline:

Ranked by Twitter as TOP for #EUETS hashtag

Someone sold 8 million spot EUAs this morning in a couple of trades cleared on @ICE_Markets – that's c. €700 million to you and me. #EUETS #OCTT
— CarbonReporter (@CarbonReporter) February 24, 2022

EUA plummet as much as 7.5% to an early morning low of €87.92 on news Russia has invaded Ukraine, while Dutch TTF has gone in the complete opposite direction, with the front end of the curve up almost 30%.#EUETS #OCTT
— Mike Szabo (@MikeSzaboCP) February 24, 2022

1/ Quick thoughts on #EUETS #CarbonCredits #Ukraine impact. I cannot see any significant impact on EUETS. High gas prices/low supply for longer = more coal burn = more emissions (than I forecast) = even more deficit. A recession wont make any significant ->#octt
— Lawson Steele (@LawsonSteele3) February 24, 2022

EU climate policy is based on:
– a degree of geopolitical stability
– access to nat gas, at least in the near-term.

The former has been upended; the latter now has massive strings attached.

Throw all prior #EUETS policy and price views out the window for now. #OCTT
— Jeff Berman (@jeffreydberman) February 24, 2022

EU carbon prices plunged as much as 7.5% in early trading today, front-month TTF prices were up more than 40% at one point as Russian forces crossed into Ukrainian territory & attacks were reported on Ukrainian military targets across the country https://t.co/HWRXc8xDHQ #EUETS
— Carbon Forward (@carbon_forward) February 24, 2022

📍We invite you to follow @ERCST_org event, where @RJeszke-CEO of @Climate_CAKE will take part in the discussion on Art. 29a #EUETS Directive – EU Measures in the event of excessive price fluctuations
✅25 Feb. @ 10.00
✅Reg. https://t.co/tP4j3qXldj #fitfor55 #EUA @PIK_Climate pic.twitter.com/O8clioTuSr
— LIFE Climate CAKE PL & LIFE VIIEW 2050 (@climate_cake) February 24, 2022

⚡ #OCTT #EUETS – After posting a nearly 6% rise yesterday, the EUAs are collapsing back this morning in a sharp bearish move likely induced by traders offloading EUAs to generate cash in order to keep their positions in the extremely volatile gas and power markets. pic.twitter.com/FdVmZONmt6
— ENGIE EnergyScan (@Energyscan_egm) February 24, 2022

This one is also interesting:

The #EUETS does not include #negativeemissions today.

Should it change? How?

Here's my latest blog post, looking into this topic slightly differently.

1/#climateprinciples https://t.co/TR9gqC36SP
— Eve Tamme (@EveTamme) February 24, 2022

And this:

How can coal-gas switching set #EUA prices when the gas comes with a humanitarian premium?

How can you be sure an Article29a intervention won't happen when consumer wallets are already hurting and will certainly hurt more?

These are the questions for 2022. #OCTT
— Jeff Berman (@jeffreydberman) February 24, 2022

Still going down..where would be the bottom? #EUA #EUETS #OCTT https://t.co/yhbWGVhaCy pic.twitter.com/m9H6sIEvkS
— Robert Jeszke (@RJeszke) February 24, 2022

EU's #netzero target of 2050 is legally binding, positioning #carbonmarkets at the helm of effective, long-term change. Last weekend, Dave Greely, Chief Economist of @Abaxx_Tech and @MCL1965 explored how #carbon pricing can build the smarter carbon markets we need. pic.twitter.com/ggDMyFSs2Z
— Smarter Markets (@Smarter_Markets) February 17, 2022

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EU Carbon Price Drops 8.3% as War Could Trim GDP: Tweets Indicate Market Puzzled

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EU Carbon Price Drops 8.3% as War Could Trim GDP: Tweets Indicate Market Puzzled

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