Mathew Carr

How California’s ~200 billionaires spent $379m to prevent a $100b tax bill — massive ROI —0.4c* to save $1

This shows where real power lies in Trump’s America — with the billionaire class. 0.4c to save a dollar? Why not?

Mathew Carr with Gemini, ChatGPT

The math behind Proposition 40 illustrates how much leverage ultra-wealthy opponents wield when calculating their Return on Investment (ROI) to block wealth redistribution.

California Proposition 40, the proposed one-off 5% wealth tax on billionaires, was rejected by voters in the 3 November 2026 election.

The latest reported results show:

NO: 55.6%

YES: 44.4%

The Numbers Kinda Side-by-Side

Projected Tax Revenue Raised~$100 Billion (over 5 years) A one-time 5% wealth tax on ~200 California residents worth over $1 billion. 90% earmarked for healthcare (Medi-Cal) and 10% for food/education.

Billionaire Opposition Spending~$379 Million

Total spent by tech and finance executives and business PACs to defeat the ballot measure. (Google co-founder Sergey Brin alone contributed over $100 million).

Proponent Support Spending~$33 Million

Raised primarily by labor unions like SEIU-UHW.

Spending Disparity Ratio~11.5 to 1 overall

(over 250 to 1 on direct ad buy blitzes)

Massively disproportionate financial pressure on voters through media buys.

Why the Math Is Fascinating (The Billionaire ROI)

  1. Massive Individual Savings vs. Ad Costs: For a individual billionaire, funding the opposition campaign was a high-yield financial hedge.
    • Example: Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg faced a potential tax liability of over $11 Billion under Prop 40.
    • Example: NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang faced a potential bill of over $7.7 Billion.
    Contributing $10 Million to $100 Million into a shared defeat pool of $379 Million yielded an enormous return—saving top billionaires hundreds of millions to billions each on their personal balance sheets.
  2. The “Cent per Dollar” Ratio: Overall, the group of ~200 billionaires spent roughly $379 Million to block a $100 Billion levy. That means for every $1.00 they would have owed in new state taxes, they spent less than 0.4 cents ($0.0038) to ensure it never went into effect. WOW
  3. Public Revenue vs. Private Campaign Injections: The $100 Billion that was defeated represents nearly a third of California’s entire annual state budget. The total campaign spent to defeat it ($379 Million) constituted just a fraction of 1% of the potential revenue lost to the state’s healthcare and safety-net systems.
Gemini

*For a few seconds I got the decimal point wrong in the headline/the top. Apologies for the confusion

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