Greens say they are neck and neck with incumbent Labour.
Betting markets say Labour will almost certainly win today’s UK byelection.
Only the power of Green organisation can defeat those market perceptions.
More to come.
Grok: Zack Polanski is a long shot in today’s Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Bookmakers put his chance of winning at roughly 5–8%.
Voting is underway in Keir Starmer’s old seat, with polls open until 10pm. The result is expected in the early hours of Friday. Polanski, the Green leader, is standing himself. Labour’s candidate is Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali.
Latest prices, from overnight and this morning:
- Labour are about 1/33 to 1/41. Coral’s 1/33 implies roughly a 97% chance of a hold.
- The Greens are 11/1 to 18/1. At 12/1 that is about a 7–8% chance before the bookmaker’s margin.
- Everyone else (Liberal Democrats, Conservatives, Reform, George Galloway’s Workers Party) is 150/1 or longer.
That is a sharp move against him. In mid-September the Greens were around 4/1 to 7/1. Labour’s price has shortened as the campaign has gone on. There is no published constituency poll. Models from the start of October had Labour ahead of the Greens by anywhere from about 4 to 16 points. In 2024 Labour won the seat with 48.9% and a majority of 11,572; the Greens were third on 10.4%.
Polanski has said it could be a few hundred votes and called it close to 50/50. The betting market does not agree. A Green win would be treated as a major upset.
