Opinion by Mathew Carr
ChatGPT on SpaceX open:
Generally, very high demand tends to push the first trade later, not earlier.
The reason is that Nasdaq and the underwriters want to avoid a chaotic opening. If there are far more buy orders than sell orders, they keep the IPO auction open longer while they gather orders and determine a fair opening price.
For example:
- If demand is moderate and balanced, an IPO might start trading shortly after the market opens.
- If demand is extreme and the order book is heavily one-sided, the exchange may delay the opening until late morning or even early afternoon New York time. High-profile IPOs such as Alibaba didn’t start trading until close to noon.
For SpaceX specifically, reports indicate demand has been several times the available supply, which is exactly the sort of situation that can extend the auction process.
So if you’re watching from the UK:
- 2:30 p.m. UK time — Nasdaq opens.
- Likely 3:30–5:00 p.m. UK time — plausible window for the first SpaceX trade.
- If demand is exceptionally strong or order imbalances are large, it could be even later.
One thing traders often watch is the indicative opening price during the auction. If that price keeps rising well above the IPO price, it usually means buyers are overwhelming sellers and the auction may take longer to complete.
This guy reckons I’m wrong
https://x.com/navaneeth20/status/2065427466533920944?s=20
How it is manipulated is here:
The sharpest risk about the SpaceX IPO: Musk is about to learn that he is not more important than the law of supply and demand