By Mathew Carr
This fighting in Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea would double disruption caused by the double blockade of the Hormuz Straight if the former comes about. Hormuz is 2,000 km or 1,200 miles to the northeast, says Gemini.
The Red Sea leads to the Suez Canal, which handles about 13% of global trade, and Israel wants to build an alternative to the Suez passage.
Is this Iran and the USA’s next trick to stoke global oil shortages, boost US oil exports and worsen global inflation?
Of the roughly 85 international warships currently flooding the wider Red Sea and Gulf of Aden maritime theater, approximately 25% to 30% are American vessels. [1]
While the United States does not make up the absolute majority of total hulls—as dozens of European Union nations, China, India, and regional navies contribute to the total ship count—the U.S. Navy easily commands over 70% of the total firepower, tonnage, and aviation capacity in the region. [1, 2, 3]
Probabilities
1. The Baseline Scenario: Intermittent Kinetic Attacks in the next six months: (75%–85% Probability)
Intelligence firms view a return to highly volatile, localized violence as the most probable day-to-day reality. [1]
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- What it looks like: Regular, targeted Houthi strikes using drones, anti-ship missiles, and explosive sea craft against western, Israeli, or allied commercial vessels. [1, 2, 3, 4]
- The Disruption: While the strait remains technically open, war-risk insurance premiums remain prohibitively high. Most Western-operated mega-container ships continue to unilaterally boycott the route, keeping Suez Canal traffic heavily suppressed. [1, 2, 3, 4]
2. The Escalation Scenario: A Formal Chokehold Attempt (25%–35% Probability)
Following the breakdown of the US–Iran talks and subsequent US blockades, Iran and the Houthis have explicitly threatened a dual-chokehold strategy alongside the Strait of Hormuz. [1, 2]
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- What it looks like: The Houthis deploy extensive naval mining, swarm attacks, and shore-to-ship ballistic barrages to deliberately freeze all commercial shipping traffic through the narrow 20-mile corridor. [1, 2, 3]
- The Disruption: A brief, absolute halt in regional traffic. This would spark an immediate, heavy Western military response, likely triggering direct kinetic operations by US airborne and naval forces stationed nearby in Djibouti. [1]
3. The De-escalation Scenario: A New Diplomatic Ceasefire (<15% Probability)
- What it looks like: A broader, comprehensive diplomatic breakthrough between the US, Israel, and Iran that successfully cools the wider regional war. [1, 2]
Chart
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