Mathew Carr

Oil trims gains as UAE to leave OPEC; Is the oil cartel falling apart? IMF still pushing carbon-price floors (2)

Brent crude was as high as $112.58 before falling to $111.06 a barrel by about 2pm in London: Trading Economics

Gemini context unchecked:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to advocate for a global carbon price floor to keep warming below 2C ….

, emphasizing that current average global prices—at roughly $5 per ton—are insufficient. Recent IMF analysis and reports from the Spring 2026 Meetings highlight the following key updates:

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Global Carbon Price Floor Proposal (based on earlier CarrZee one)

The IMF proposes a tiered minimum price system by 2030 to balance equity with climate goals:

International Monetary Fund | IMFInternational Monetary Fund | IMF +3
  • Advanced Economies: $75 per ton.
  • High-Income Emerging Markets (e.g., China): $50 per ton.
  • Lower-Income Emerging Markets (e.g., India): $25 per ton.
Expansion to New Sectors

The IMF is intensifying its focus on “hard-to-abate” sectors that have historically avoided carbon taxation:

International Monetary Fund | IMFInternational Monetary Fund | IMF +3
  • International Aviation & Maritime: A new IMF staff note urges a global carbon tax on these sectors, which could raise up to $200 billion annually by 2035.
  • Road Transport and Heating: Ongoing efforts aim to extend pricing to these areas to make policies less regressive.
    International Monetary Fund | IMFInternational Monetary Fund | IMF +1
Macroeconomic and Financial Stability
  • Carbon Risk Premium: IMF research shows financial institutions are increasingly charging higher interest rates (risk spreads) to carbon-intensive borrowers.
  • Credit Risk: A 2025 IMF study found that while carbon pricing increases default probabilities for some firms, the aggregate impact on the banking sector’s financial stability remains manageable.
  • Revenue Recycling: To maintain political support, the IMF recommends using carbon revenues to compensate low-income households and fund green infrastructure.
    International Monetary Fund | IMFInternational Monetary Fund | IMF +3
Current Market Context
While the IMF pushes for higher global rates, established markets are seeing significant activity:
  • EU Carbon Permits: Prices reached a 9-week high of €75.33 as of 28 April 2026.
  • Global Coverage: Approximately 63% of global GDP now operates under some form of carbon pricing system as of April 2026.
    Trading EconomicsTrading Economics +1

 

Also countries to quit fossil fuels like France?

https://x.com/ftenergy/status/2048363871597941100?s=20

(more to come)

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