By Mathew Carr
April 15, 2026 — In WW2 the USA blocked Japan. Is it now planning the same for China?
Speculation has risen on X about a strangulation by America of China oil imports, potentially deploying US troops on Indonesia islands or navy ships in its waters.
80% of China oil imports could be at risk.
I can see few reasons why Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, would allow this … as Trump terrorizes Iran.
Yet Indonesia has struck a deal with the USA in the past couple of days about war cooperation, very strange timing if Indonesia is indeed against Trump’s violence.
But I CAN think of one good reason.
Indonesia could in theory ship hundreds of millions of dollars in coal to China if China can’t get its hands on oil. Yet why would China play this game?
Indonesia is kinda a coal-based petrostate.
One view:
Grok context unchecked
Yes, blocking the Strait of Malacca would severely threaten China’s oil supplies.1
The strait is the primary maritime route for most of China’s seaborne crude oil imports (especially from the Middle East, which supplies roughly 50–60% of China’s total imports). A blockade or major disruption would immediately cut off the vast majority of these flows.5
By how much? The percentage impact
~80% of China’s crude oil imports transit the Strait of Malacca. This figure is consistently cited in 2025–2026 analyses from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), think tanks, and official Chinese strategic assessments (the long-standing “Malacca Dilemma”).157913
China imported roughly 11.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil in 2025 (about 70% of its total oil consumption; the rest is domestic production).1226
→ A full blockade would therefore disrupt ~9.2 mbpd (80% of imports) in the short term.
Important caveats on real-world impact
Not 100% of total supply: Domestic production (~4 mbpd) and overland pipelines (e.g., from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Myanmar) would continue. Russia alone now supplies a large share via land routes or Pacific ports that bypass Malacca.14
Mitigations exist:
China’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) is among the world’s largest and could cover several months of imports.
Tankers could reroute (longer, costlier paths around Indonesia/Australia or via Arctic routes), but this would be slow and expensive.
Diversification efforts (BRI pipelines, more Russian/African/ Brazilian imports) have reduced some vulnerability, but not enough to eliminate the chokepoint risk.
A prolonged blockade would still cause massive economic damage: higher global oil prices, rationing, factory slowdowns, and inflation. Even partial disruption (e.g., 20–30% effective cut) would be painful.17
In short: Yes — it would threaten roughly 80% of China’s oil imports (the lifeblood of its economy), though China has some buffers. This is exactly why the “Malacca Dilemma” remains a core Chinese national-security concern.
Population reduction? Global famine?
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelyon/p/hormuz-blockade-panama-china-more?r=rbths&utm_medium=ios