Nuclear rule ignorer Israel is a US proxy, btw.
Gemini unchecked …warning:
As of mid-April 2026, the landscape for nuclear deproliferation is a tale of two extremes.
While the major powers have entered a period of “unconstrained” competition following the expiration of the New START treaty, there is a surprising surge in diplomatic activity regarding Iran that has shifted the odds for at least one major regional breakthrough by year-end.
The overall chance of global deproliferation (a net reduction in functional warheads) is statistically low, but the chance of a specific diplomatic “wildcard” success is currently hovering near 50%.
2026 Nuclear Landscape At-a-Glance
Category Status (April 2026) Trend Chance of Breakthrough by Dec 31
US-Russia Bilateral
New START expired (Feb 5, 2026). No successor. 📈 Proliferation
Iran Nuclear Deal Active talks in Pakistan; Trump claims 15-point deal. 📉 Deproliferation 47-48% (Based on prediction markets)
China expansion Reached ~600 warheads; on track for 1,000. 📈 Proliferation
NPT RevCon Starts April 27, 2026 in New York. ⏸️ Stalled
15% (Consensus on final document)
Global Stockpile 9,745 active warheads (increasing). 📈 Proliferation
Near 0% (Modernization is the priority)
The “Big Three” Crisis
For the first time since the 1960s, there are no legally binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.
- The Expiration: Since the lapse of New START in February, both the US and Russia have continued to observe limits “in spirit,” but verification (on-site inspections) has effectively died.
- The China Factor: The US has stated it will not sign a new deal with Russia unless China is included. China, however, maintains that its arsenal is a fraction of the others and refuses to join, creating a diplomatic stalemate.
The Iran “Wildcard”
The most significant chance for a “deproliferation win” this year comes from the ongoing negotiations with Tehran. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen a massive spike in optimism this month.
- The Deal: Reports suggest a potential 20-year pause on uranium enrichment in exchange for massive sanctions relief.
- The Risk: Markets are “trading hope,” and many analysts warn that without a formal signing, these odds could collapse as quickly as they rose.
Key Dates to Watch
- April 27 – May 22, 2026: The NPT Review Conference at the UN. This is the “make or break” moment for the Non-Proliferation Treaty. If it ends without a consensus document (as it did in 2022), the treaty’s credibility will be at an all-time low.
- September 2026: The one-year anniversary of Putin’s proposal to maintain limits. If no formal “handshake” agreement is reached by then, expect both sides to accelerate deployment of MIRVs (multiple warheads per missile).
Summary: If you’re looking for a total global reduction, the odds are virtually zero—the world’s military-available warheads rose by 141 in the last year alone. However, if you’re watching for a “signature moment” like an Iran deal, it’s a coin toss.
Given the current volatility in the Iran talks, do you think a deal there would actually slow down the arms race between the US, Russia, and China, or is that a separate beast entirely?
[CarrZee: it should do so]
