Crypto’s decline is a canary in the coal mine and could spill into equities, says this guy (video):
https://x.com/leadlagreport/status/2019439246097187004?s=61&t=-_YkipNrovZ5OqFXls95lw
Gemini:
The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has experienced a significant upward shift over the past two years, moving from levels below 1\% in early 2024 to over 2\% by early 2026. This trend reflects the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) pivot away from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy and yield curve control (YCC).
As of February 6, 2026, the 10-year JGB yield is approximately 2.213\%.
Key Observations:
- Recent Surge: The yield has climbed steadily throughout 2025, reaching a multi-year high of approximately 2.355\% in January 2026 before stabilizing slightly.
- Fiscal Concerns & Inflation: Rising yields have been driven by expectations of persistent inflation (near the BoJ’s 2\% target) and market reactions to government spending plans and leadership changes.
- Historical Context: This level represents a dramatic change from the negative or near-zero interest rate environment that characterized the Japanese bond market for much of the previous decade.
Gemini
The 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has also seen a dramatic rise, currently trading significantly higher than the 10-year yield. This reflects the “steepening” of the Japanese yield curve as investors demand higher compensation for the long-term risks of inflation and increased government debt issuance.
As of February 6, 2026, the 30-year JGB yield is approximately 3.550\%.
Key Observations:
- Yield Curve Steepening: While the 10-year yield is around 2.2\%, the 30-year yield has climbed toward 3.6\%-3.8\% in early 2026. The spread between them has widened as the Bank of Japan reduced its interventions in the super-long end of the curve.
- Volatility in 2026: In January 2026, the 30-year yield spiked to a peak of 3.876\% following concerns over the expanded fiscal deficit and a “bond rout” linked to political developments, before stabilizing slightly in early February.
- Institutional Demand: Life insurers and pension funds, who are the primary buyers of 30-year JGBs, have become more cautious as yields reached levels not seen in over a decade.