Opinion and reporting by Mathew Carr

The newly published US climate-plan document does not appear to tighten the 2030 US emissions target (I thought the idea behind the Paris climate deal was that NDCs [nationally determined contributions] would get gradually tighter over time as technology and science advances — and as the climate crisis becomes more acute, which it clearly is). The US merely sets a new target for 2035 and keeps its weak 2030 target the same.

There are some amazingly heroic sentences (that do acknowledge that the 1.5C target is probably dead — note use of the phrase “will likely fall” below — it can only fall from a temperature above 1.5C — the world’s biggest economy is still not acknowledging the failure of the 1.5C target clearly) :

US NDC: “If all governments affirm or set net zero goals for 2070 or earlier accounting for all greenhouse gases—and establish straight line or steeper trajectories to implement them—global temperatures would likely fall below 1.5°C by 2100.“

The Biden administration, in publishing this document, is not signalling it will buy carbon credits from other nations to meet its targets. [It would do this under Article 6 of the Paris climate deal if it does it.] Yet, it might decide to do that at some future time.

This will be a blow to envoys at the COP29 UN climate negotiations last month, who would have been hoping that America is a big buyer of credits, which would provide much needed climate finance for emissions-cutting projects and adaptation measures. Other forms of finance were not really forthcoming at those talks, at least until 2035.

See this from the NDC (published below for convenience): “Should the United States decide to use voluntary cooperation towards achievement of its target or to authorize the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes towards the NDCs of other Parties, it would report on such use or authorization through its biennial transparency reports and consistent with any guidance adopted under Article 6.“

[more to come]