25th May 202326th May 2023 mathew carr

EU Natural Gas Plunges 9% as it Turns Out Germany Didn’t Need LNG, so Much + Japan (1)

By Mathew Carr

May 25-26, 2023 — Front-month and multiyear futures contracts plunged Thursday as solar and wind investments seen curbing some of the baseload upside … and figures show Germany didn’t really need new LNG imports, after all.

EARLIER THURSDAY

Check out and translate this 8-page thread:

Weil es auch innerhalb der Ampel-Koalition Zweifel am geplanten #LNG-Terminal auf Rügen gibt, wirbt Robert #Habeck in einem Brief an die Fraktionen noch einmal für die Änderung des LNG-Beschleunigungsgesetzes. Eine zentrale Aussage in dem Brief ist jedoch unzutreffend. (1/8) pic.twitter.com/pYlPPuUnb3
— Malte Kreutzfeldt (@MKreutzfeldt) May 25, 2023

A little more flavor. Japanese #LNG imports are already at 5-year lows in May, so any additional juice coming from nuclear puts a harder ceiling on hopes of a stronger Q3 revival for LNG. The chart shows the typical buying pattern & why Q3 is so crucial to global balances. #ONGT pic.twitter.com/nJwGaO6YmR
— Ira Joseph (@ira_joseph) May 24, 2023

We've published an #AEO2023 Issues in Focus article examining the relationship between U.S. #LNG exports and U.S. #naturalgas prices through 2050.

➡️ https://t.co/nR7OJsbDz5 pic.twitter.com/NbvEkxKBMj
— EIA (@EIAgov) May 23, 2023

Maybe I'm out of bounds here, but I rate this Qatari quandary up there with "what's going to happen to the Russian gas?" as the two defining moments of global gas going forward. Here's a reminder of the sheer magnitude of the issue. Will these supplies be contract or spot? #LNG pic.twitter.com/DcIeDgmOCt
— Ira Joseph (@ira_joseph) May 23, 2023

Stranded assets?

Record prices and the need for energy security are driving huge momentum for US #LNG projects that could see over US$100 billion invested before the end of the decade. Btu what are the challenges that could stand in the way? Click to download the report: https://t.co/xwipho5zej pic.twitter.com/gXkg3g4zj6
— Wood Mackenzie (@WoodMackenzie) May 26, 2023

Investments in green energy now 70% higher than in fossil fuels, according to IEA.@1997_raghav reports #GreenEnergy #CleanEnergy #FossilFuel #IEA https://t.co/EUWCt7VoFZ
— Business Standard (@bsindia) May 25, 2023

Fossil fuels still doing great, it has to be said:

International Energy Agency (IEA) said high prices spurred an increase in fossil fuel investment and it expects investment in new supply to rise by 6% in 2023 to $950 billion.@mshubhangi_19 brings more details 👇 https://t.co/aMghm64ulb #Oil #Gas #FossilFuel #Investment #IEA
— Moneycontrol (@moneycontrolcom) May 25, 2023

Solar Will Win

A solar panel now costs around €0.20 per Watt of peak capacity. Over its lifetime that 1 W can produce ~40 kWh, so the investment in the panel is €0.005 per kWh.
Yes, I'm aware of balance of system and installation costs, interest, VAT etc. But this is why it's unbeatable.
— Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050) May 25, 2023

(Updated with chart near the end of the day Thursday, added Japan chart and others)

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