www.alexprather.co/post/looming-carbon-credit-supply-crisis

Dec. 25-28, 2022 — This article by Alex Prather is a useful state of play covering the carbon credit markets.

She points out the markets are cast as oversupplied when the opposite is true.

There is a big risk Trove, which I respect, is underestimating demand in 2030. Trove flags demand of as much as 1.3 billion tons of voluntary emission credits.

True, 2030 demand needs to be closer to 23 billion tons (voluntary, compliance and regulated emission cuts).

See this other chart highlighted by Prather.

Near-term prices remain a little pathetic at less than $5 a ton, rather than the $200 needed to spur behaviour change.

This Dec. 2023 contract from CME is rising above $6.

Chart snipped from 3pm London time Wednesday.