As Mariupol Falls, Europe’s Natural-Gas Market Signals War Could Extend to at Least May 2023; World Bank, IMF See Poorer World (2)

–May 2023 discount narrows

By Mathew Carr

April 18-20, 2022 — Natural gas futures for May 2023 closed at a record 77.31 euros / MWh on Wednesday, before easing Thursday.

Gas futures were not trading Monday on ICE. The Russia-Ukraine war is boosting gas prices because of uncertainty over the transit of Russian gas over Ukraine’s pipeline network and a lack of clarity too about the completion and permitting of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, an expansion of a line that already carries gas directly to Germany from Russia.

Ukrainian soldiers had launched a counterattack in Mariupol, a beseiged southern Ukraine city, on Monday despite “overwhelming” numbers of Russian forces around it, a new video published by the Telegraph newspaper in the UK appeared to show.

Footage taken from the air appeared to show a group of Ukrainian soldiers making their way through the city, engaging in a firefight with Russian troops, pinning them down and throwing grenades at their position, the newspaper reported.

Jumping May 2023 Dutch Natgas Contract

ICE – euros / MWh. As of Tuesday morning London time

The contract’s advance the past two weeks is in contrast to the front-month contract, which has been flattish. Most trading is on the front month.

Flattish May 2022 Contract

World Bank see poorer world as Covid and Russia-Ukraine war impact supply chains, inflation. Economic output is seen scaling back instead of rising faster. Inflation is becoming bigger problem instead of easing:

Russia and EU economic production shaken by war: IMF

The EU may pivot to nuclear from natgas because of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant on the Pripyat River in northern Ukraine by NASA Johnson is licensed under CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0

Search “natural gas” on for more on gas, energy and carbon.

(Adds Tweets, context of economic harm, earlier added Mariupol’s still fighting)

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