Russia Gas Flows Via Ukraine at Highest Since New Year’s Day; U.S. Flicks at What De-Escalation Might Look Like (1)

Jan. 25, 2022 — On social media, in a US press conference.

With many eyes glued on natural gas, Russia, Ukraine and LNG, U.S. begins to flick at what descalation might look like — without saying it’s likely. It was vague, to be sure.

Tuesday on LinkedIn by ICIS’s Ed Martin: Russian #naturalgas flows to Europe via #ukraine look to be around 42mcm/day for the second day in a row based on within-day nomination data for the Velke Kapusany border point between Ukraine and Slovakia from eustream, a.s..

This is 12mcm/day above January’s average, but still just half December’s average rate of 84mcm/day.

US State Dept: Ned Price, Department Spokesperson from last night London time. Link here

Section on de-escalation:

QUESTION: What would de-escalation look like?

QUESTION: Just one thing on Ukraine, one final thing on Ukraine.

QUESTION: Would de-escalation – what would de-escalation look like? I mean, do they have the – now, it is alleged that they have 100,000 troops in their own territory along the border. So de-escalation would look like maybe if they withdrew 25,000 troops? I mean, what would de-escalation look like?

MR PRICE: It could include that. I’m not going to be prescriptive.

QUESTION: Is there, like, a figure you would like to see?

MR PRICE: Look, I’m not going to be prescriptive about that. I think de-escalation can take many forms. It can take the form of what we’re seeing and what we have seen along Ukraine’s borders. It can take the form of what we are seeing in terms of Russian activity in what should be another sovereign country, Belarus. It could take the form of what we are hearing from the Russian Federation. De-escalation can take many forms.

It can take many forms as an initial step, and that is what we would like to see with the end goal in mind of seeing Russian forces return to their permanent barracks, to cease this and put an end and reverse this buildup along Ukraine’s borders, to cease with the aggressive rhetoric. De-escalation can take many forms. We would welcome any of it.

QUESTION: So only – only if Russian forces are back in their barracks at all times will be – it will be considered de-escalation?

MR PRICE: No. My point is that there are many forms de-escalation can take. There’s also a continuum. We would welcome, at least as an initial step, any form of de-escalation.

QUESTION: Ned —

QUESTION: (Off-mike.)

MR PRICE: Yes.

QUESTION: Yeah, are you aware of the meeting that will be held in Paris on Wednesday between Ukrainian and Russian officials, and do you expect any breakthrough?

MR PRICE: Yeah, so I do not expect any American involvement in that. Let’s see. As you know, we’re consulting with allies and partners, including Ukraine, to determine the next steps, and we are in communication with the Russian Federation as well, as we’ve said. We do believe that diplomacy is the best path forward, and we’re prepared to support dialogue and diplomacy that serves to de-escalate tensions. So we are supportive of those efforts that are undertaken on the part of the Russian Federation in good faith.

QUESTION: Have you seen the tweets of your Ukrainian counterpart, spokesperson? He tweeted while we were in the briefing. I’ll read super-quickly: “There are 129 diplomatic missions in Ukraine. Of these, only four have declared the departure of the family members of personnel: U.S., UK, Australia and Germany. The rest, including EU, OSCE, COE, NATO, and UN, have not expressed their intention to follow such premature steps.” Do you have a response to that?

MR PRICE: I don’t.

QUESTION: We hear that they are —

MR PRICE: I don’t have a response to that. My only comment would be what you’ve heard me say before. This is based on one criterion and one criterion alone. It’s a priority we attach to the safety and security of our colleagues in Ukraine….

(Adds Tuesday update at top)

Previous story on Russia and Ukraine: here

Blame for Energy Crisis for Demonizing Russia, Reneging on Nord Stream Expansion (1)

Natgas Prices to fall if Nord Stream 2 is commissioned. ‘But get ready for another bumpy year ahead‘: WoodMac

CarrZee Comment

Jan. 12-13, 2022. By Mathew Carr

The United States and the EU love to demonize Russia. The lack of collaboration is partly to blame for the global energy crisis.

Europe, led by Germany, has effectively reneged on its deal to allow completion of the expansion on the Nord Stream natural gas line direct from Russia, which would limit the use of Ukraine’s pipelines.

The dispute really lies with Germany and the US’s failures on climate protection — which are truly shocking (same for my home country Australia, another natural gas supplier alongside Russia and the U.S.) …

__________

And remember big decisions are potentially being made this month on climate policy that will impact on the value of Russian gas in the long term. See this CarrZee broad overview / press story:

Renewables are the answer … and solar and wind need a bit of natural gas: Europe’s big debate (1)

Jan. 23-24, 2022: Press review

apple.news/AOJx8E14kS8KJMKNFTUPk0w

If you really want to make sure that you can provide stable, affordable energy to your citizens, renewables is the answer” : Timmermans

Still… renewables need a natural gas backup for now because of intermittency.

Big debate this month in the EU:

https://apple.news/AImV8NmQPROWUcgFMJr5qEw

Photo by Alexandr Podvalny on Pexels.com

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