Opinion and reporting by Mathew Carr
The European Union’s response to the “Paris Bypass” (the U.S.-China Board of Trade proposal from earlier this month) has been swift … and focused on Strategic Autonomy.
One might see the Iran war, the rise of the Petroyuan and Trump’s $5b lawsuit against / takeover of the BBC as extremely aggressive and varied ambit claims ahead of this week’s WTO meeting.
If countries decide at the WTO to place tariffs on digital services after all (now more than half the value of global trade), the nature of data movement across the earth might change forever.
Disinformation could worsen. Markets are becoming less free.
A few men should not be allowed by themselves to set new rules.
Since the oil and trade markets are increasingly viewed as “managed” by state powers rather than open competition, the U.S.-China Board of Trade is essentially a bilateral attempt to formalize market “rigging” to prevent economic strains and enrich certain individuals.
Gemini AI on the Board of Trade:
Why the WTO is Being Sidelined
The Paris talks (March 15–16) confirmed that both Washington and Beijing find the WTO too slow and “out of touch” with the current energy and tech wars:
- Bypassing the Courts: The WTO’s legal system is paralyzed. The Board of Trade provides a “Board of Investment” to settle specific fights (like chips or rare earths) in weeks rather than the years a WTO case takes. [THE US CREATED THIS MESS AND IS RIGHT NOW TRYING TO FASHION A RIGGED SOLUTION THAT UNFAIRLY SERVES ITSELF AND CHINA]
- The “Hormuz” Reality: With the Middle East in conflict, neither side wants to wait for “market forces.” They are pre-negotiating massive volumes of U.S. oil and gas to be sold to China to bypass the “rigged” volatility of the global benchmarks.
- The Yaoundé Shadow: As the WTO meets in Cameroon this week (March 26), most analysts believe the real “rules of the road” for 2026 are being written by Bessent and He Lifeng, not the 164 ministers in Yaoundé.
As Mr Trump cozies up to China, the EU and others seem to want to form a different bloc.
Rather than trying to force their way into the U.S.-China room, Brussels is building its own “Third Pole” to ensure it isn’t crushed between the two giants.
Here is how the EU is moving this week:
- The “Diversification Anchor” (The Australia Deal).
On March 24, 2026 (today), the EU and Australia finally signed a massive free trade and defense agreement in Canberra.
- The Goal: To secure critical minerals (lithium, cobalt) needed for the green transition, bypassing the “rigged” Chinese supply chains.
- The Message: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen explicitly stated that the EU “cannot be overdependent on any single supplier,” a clear signal that if the U.S. and China are carving up the market, the EU will secure its own resources elsewhere.
- The “Internal Shield” (Single Market Acceleration)
In response to the Paris talks, EU leaders met in Belgium this month to trigger an emergency acceleration of the EU Single Market.
- Capital Markets Union: Brussels is pushing to unlock €10 trillion in private savings to fund European “industrial champions” so they can compete with U.S. and Chinese state-backed firms.
- Buy European Act: There is growing momentum for a “European preference” in public procurement—effectively a “Made in Europe” version of the U.S. “Made in America” agenda.
- The “Geoeconomic Toolkit” (Protection)
The EU is not just watching; it is preparing for the “Managed Trade” era to turn hostile.
- The “Suspension Clause”: The existing EU-U.S. trade agreement (struck in 2025) contains a “Suspension Clause.” If the U.S.-China Board of Trade results in new tariffs on European steel or cars, the EU is prepared to automatically re-establish tariffs on over 400 U.S. products INCLUDING DIGITAL SERVICES.
- Anti-Coercion Instrument: This tool allows the EU to retaliate with trade sanctions if either Washington or Beijing tries to “blackmail” a member state (like the recent pressure on Lithuania or the Netherlands regarding chips).
- The “Hormuz Holdout”
While President Trump has asked allies for help in the Strait of Hormuz to lower oil prices, the EU response in Brussels this month has been “chilly.”
- Diplomatic Distance: EU foreign ministers have signaled they will not send ships to join a U.S.-led escort mission, fearing it would escalate the conflict.
- Gemini:
It’s unclear if Trump’s team is ceding oil-market influence to China as part of his wider trade aspirations /deal.
Yes, the March 11, 2026 figure of 520,000+ lots traded in Chinese yuan on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) is a new all-time record on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE).
To put this into perspective, this single-day surge surpassed the previous historical record of 515,989 lots set during the extreme global oil market volatility of 2020. (Gemini unchecked)
US is abandoning the WTO system that brought it prosperity; selfish era is here, Singapore says, bracing for more shocks (1)
The record volume on March 11 proved that the “Petroyuan” is no longer a theoretical project; it is now a functional global liquidity pool that can move the needle on the world’s most important exchange rates.
While the 1970s oil crisis created the petrodollar system, Iran’s move this month to protect vessels carrying Petroyuan is trying to chip away at that system…and potentially start a new one.
While the increase in demand for Petroyuan may be modest so far, the geopolitical signal is strong.
During these shifts, traders should not underestimate the importance of the tech bros.
While I’ve been calling for the BBC to be Europe’s social media giant to compete with outsized US dominance, I was a little surprised to see a Google chap is about to be appointed into the Beeb’s biggest seat.
That this is happening while Trump has a $5 billion lawsuit against the world’s most trusted news outfit strikes me as risky (is Trump using lawfare to install his lacky [Google/Alphabet Trojan Horse?] Matt Brittin)….given that damaging propaganda and Epstein cover ups in the US have normalised what could become an out-of-control loss of confidence in news, markets, a global climate crisis and unstoppable nature destruction.
Note the grab for “trust”
