1:54am in London Monday ….Brent up 4% to $76 a barrel.

Markets survive stress test of wasteful 2-day Iran weekend war.

Trading Economics snip above, ICE below

Iran continues to ship oil (Bloomberg)

These links mention the push for a vote this week on limiting Trump’s war powers after the Iran stuff:

– BusinessMirror post: x.com (Says key members want a swift vote to restrain any more attacks without approval—links to details.) – Michael Grossman: x.com (Quotes Sen. Mark Kelly calling for an immediate Senate vote on Tim Kaine’s resolution.) – Gordo Stevens: x.com (Predicts the Senate vote this week will flop—46-54 against curbing Trump.) No one’s locking in Thursday exactly, but it’s all this week chatter. If you want more or a specific rep’s take, just say!

https://x.com/businessmirror/status/2028298905851777395?s=46

https://x.com/repthomasmassie/status/2027739993033134279?s=46

One view (unedited from Tweet below)

Crash coming?

https://x.com/sungleeiq/status/2028239357942124846?s=20

Text from Tweet: THE WORST MARKET CRASH SINCE 2008 COULD HIT IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS The Strait of Hormuz is SHUTTING DOWN. 70% of vessel traffic has ALREADY stopped. This has NEVER happened before in modern history. Over 20% of the world’s oil and 20% of global LNG passes through this one narrow waterway. IT IS NOW EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED. If you hold ANY assets right now – stocks, crypto, bonds – YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: Oil was $73 on Friday.

Goldman Sachs is projecting $130+ per barrel if the strait stays closed. That is a 78% SPIKE in 48 hours. Here is the chain reaction that is about to hit: • Oil spikes → Transportation costs explode • Transportation costs → EVERYTHING gets more expensive • Inflation surges → The Fed CANNOT cut rates • No rate cuts → Bond yields SPIKE • Yields spike → Liquidity DRIES UP • Liquidity dies → Markets CRASH This is not speculation. This is the textbook sequence. The last time oil spiked this hard was 1973. The S&P 500 dropped 48% over the next year. $4.2 TRILLION was wiped from global markets. Now look at what is DIFFERENT this time: • Global debt is at $315 TRILLION (3x higher than 2008) • Markets are leveraged to the teeth • Margin calls will cascade • Crypto has $890 BILLION in open leverage positions HERE IS WHAT GETS HIT FIRST: Tech stocks — high duration, rate sensitive. NVIDIA, Apple, Tesla will bleed. Small caps — no pricing power, crushed by inflation. $BTC and crypto — leveraged positions will liquidate in cascades. $100B+ in liquidations is not unrealistic. Bonds — yields spike, prices crash. Your “safe haven” is not safe. Gold — only asset that benefits. Already near all-time highs. Oil stocks — Exxon, Chevron, BP will surge while everything else burns. Defense stocks — Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop already up 14% this year. There are 3 scenarios from here: BEST CASE — Diplomacy works, strait reopens within days. Oil drops back. Markets recover. Probability: LOW. MIDDLE CASE — Strait stays disrupted for weeks. Oil at $100-120. Slow bleed across all markets. 10-15% correction. Recession odds jump to 60%+. WORST CASE — Full shutdown. Oil at $130+. Global supply chains collapse. S&P drops 25-30%. Crypto crashes 40%+. Full recession by Q3. We are currently between scenario 2 and 3. Markets open in HOURS. The people who positioned over the weekend will profit. Everyone else finds out what this costs them at 9:30 AM. This is your warning.