Opinion By Mathew Carr
On Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay day:
This Tesla house will crash. These valuations are not sustainable. Grok itself implies that.
…even if the guy is impressive in some ways.
Grok note
Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) Overview (as of November 7, 2025)
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) is an advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) that aims to enable semi-autonomous driving under human supervision. It’s currently marketed as FSD (Supervised), meaning it requires constant driver attention and is classified as Level 2 autonomy by SAE standards. It handles tasks like navigation, lane changes, parking, and responding to traffic, but you must remain ready to intervene at all times. FSD is available as a one-time purchase ($8,000–$12,000 depending on the vehicle) or a subscription ($99–$199/month), and it’s compatible with Tesla vehicles equipped with Hardware 3 (HW3) or later.
Current Software Version and Rollouts
- Latest Version: FSD Supervised v14.1.5 is now rolling out via software update 2025.38.8.5 to employees and early access users, with wider fleet deployment expected soon. This includes improvements like better arrival options (e.g., pulling into garages or driveways more smoothly), customizable speed profiles, and enhanced UI for parking lots.
- Recent Updates:
- v14.1.4 (in 2025.32.8.16) focuses on better gate/debris detection and is at ~21% fleet rollout.
- v14.1 (in 2025.32.8.5) introduced self-driving in standard parking lots and UI tweaks; this marked the first major FSD update in nearly a year.
- Broader fleet: 2025.38.6 (66% rollout) includes FSD 13.2.9 with 3D navigation buildings, dashcam enhancements, and side camera recording.
- Upcoming: Elon Musk announced v14.2 and v14.3 will roll out in the next few weeks, with faster iteration cycles. Tesla is also pushing sales teams to demo FSD more aggressively to customers.
Users report v14.1.4 as “very impressive” for everyday drives, though some wish for manual speed overrides to avoid tickets. Note: Older HW3 vehicles are supported but may lag behind HW4/AI4 hardware in performance—Musk recently shared a multi-year FSD hardware roadmap emphasizing upgrades.
Key Recent News
- Attention Monitoring Changes: In 1–2 months, Tesla plans to relax FSD’s strict attention requirements, potentially allowing texting or other distractions while the system drives (pending data review for safety). This could make it feel more “hands-off” but still requires supervision.
- China Expansion: Tesla has partial FSD approval in China already, with full rollout expected in February–March 2026. This is a big step for Tesla’s largest market, competing with locals like XPeng and Baidu.
- Shareholder Meeting Highlights (November 6, 2025): Investors approved Musk’s massive pay package and discussed FSD’s role in Robotaxi ambitions. Tesla aims to remove safety drivers from Austin Robotaxis by year-end, enabling fully unsupervised ops in select areas. A new “Cybercab” (steerless robotaxi) production starts April 2026. Analysts like Cathie Wood reiterated a $2,600/share target by 2030, with 90% tied to Robotaxi/FSD revenue.
- Insurance Tie-In: Tesla now self-underwrites insurance in California, which could tie into unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi liability—speculation points to imminent expansions.
Limitations and Future Outlook
FSD isn’t fully autonomous yet (no unsupervised driving on public roads), and regulatory hurdles remain.
It’s trained on billions of miles of real-world data, but edge cases like construction zones or bad weather can still trip it up. Tesla’s vision: Unsupervised FSD (Level 4/5) by 2026, powering a $10T Robotaxi network.
For the official page, check Tesla’s FSD site. If you’re a Tesla owner, update your app to see if v14 is available—rollouts are gradual. Got a specific angle (e.g., pricing, comparisons, or videos)? Let me know!