Opinion by Mathew Carr
Oct. 27, 2025 — China should refuse President Donald Trump’s request to further delay beyond Nov. 10 export curbs placed on its rare-earth minerals, in order to ramp up pressure on America to rejoin UN-based climate-protection efforts and embrace multilateralism more widely.
A US-China trade truce is set to expire on Nov. 10, the first day of climate talks in Brazil. Without the truce, American business will have to pay billions of dollars more for the rare earths it needs for main obsession …the AI revolution.
The climate negotiations are expected to end Nov. 21 (but usually they don’t end on time). See this FT story today for some context:
As a gesture of goodwill, China’s Premier Xi Jinping might give Trump a few extra days of leniency. But my sense is Mr Trump needs to his country to feel real pain before he will reverse his decision to leave the Paris climate deal on Jan. 27 next year — in only three months time.
Trump needs to be forced to draw America into using Article 6 of the Paris climate deal to allow cost-efficient UN carbon trading that rewards business and people that cut climate-damaging emissions.
This voluntary free-market system is acceptable to free marketeers and conservative values and should appeal to Trump vs other more expensive climate action. The president’s commerce secretary Howard Lutnick probably has made millions of euros from carbon markets (even if not much profit).
The USA has contributed about a fifth of GHG in the atmosphere even though it has only 4% of the world’s population.
The world have coughed up with money for security, at America’s request. Now it’s the USA’s turn to pay up by agreeing to buy UN carbon credits … in the name of climate security.
It’s more important to have a sustainable world than AI.
NOTES
Still, ChatGPT helps make sense of this situation:
There appears to be some confusion around the effective dates of Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM) export-controls on rare-earths — different sources cite different dates.
Here’s a breakdown of what the credible sources say:
✅ What is clear
On 9 October 2025, China announced a new set of export-control measures covering rare-earth materials, equipment and technologies. According to legal-analysis firm Mayer Brown: mining/technology controls were “effective immediately”, whereas many of the other controls (e.g., on materials/equipment) were set to become effective on 8 November 2025. Some measures (particularly extraterritorial jurisdiction over foreign-manufactured items with Chinese-origin rare-earth content) are noted to take effect on 1 December 2025.
⚠️ Why the “11 November” / “10 November” reference
The Financial Times reported that U.S. officials expect China to delay the introduction of controls until 11 November. The delay expectation likely reflects negotiation dynamics or the possibility of deferred implementation — not the published legal effective date per MOFCOM’s notices. Some commentary (e.g., in legal e-alerts) lists 8 November 2025 as the effective date for certain categories.
🎯 My best assessment
The official announcement date: 9 October 2025. The published effective date(s): some items immediately, others scheduled for 8 November 2025, and extraterritorial rules for 1 December 2025. The “11 November” / “Nov 10” date appears to reflect expectations or negotiations, rather than the formal legal date from the MOFCOM announcement.
If you like, I can check for the specific MOFCOM notice numbers (e.g., No. 55/56/57/61 etc) and provide a table listing each controlled item category with its announced effective date. Would you like me to?
(Updates with meme of the cover of Saturday’s FT magazine)