Opinion and reporting by Mathew Carr, ChatGPT and other friends

Aug. 10, 2025 — Most probable “long-term” outcome for the Murdoch/News Corp/ Fox empire could come quicker than you think:

Eventually, editorial differences + sibling politics lead to either a negotiated split of assets or a soft moderation of Fox’s tone under pressure from shareholders, regulators, or public sentiment.

Yes — a shift away from the far-right nonsense.

Yes — the 2026 U.S. midterms could accelerate that “soft moderation or split” scenario, depending on how the political and business environment shifts for Fox.

Here’s why:

1. Ratings & Revenue Pressure

If Fox News’ political coverage fails to drive strong ratings during the midterms — or worse, if viewers defect to competitors like Newsmax or OANN — shareholder patience could wear thin. Advertising revenues are highly sensitive to election cycles; a disappointing midterms performance would feed into internal debates over whether the current hard-right editorial line is sustainable.

2. Regulatory & Legal Risk

A midterms outcome that strengthens Democratic control could bring: Renewed FCC scrutiny of broadcast licenses, potential moves on antitrust or cross-ownership rules, higher legal exposure for defamation and misinformation cases. James and possibly Elisabeth could argue this regulatory risk is a reason to moderate Fox’s tone to protect corporate value.

3. Family Trust Dynamics

Midterm political fallout could serve as proof point for one faction’s argument: Lachlan faction: “Stay the course — political headwinds will pass, the brand is strong.” James/Elisabeth faction: “We’re alienating advertisers, inviting lawsuits, and killing long-term value.” If post-midterms shareholder meetings get tense, Prudence’s swing vote in the trust could be pulled forward into active use.

4. Market Signals

If Wall Street punishes Fox Corp stock after the midterms — for example, over fear of declining ad revenue or rising legal risk — that external pressure could force internal negotiations earlier than expected.

Asset split talks could happen while Rupert is still alive if he feels a breakup is the only way to preserve family control.

Bottom Line

The midterms could act as a catalyst event:

If Fox thrives, Lachlan’s grip strengthens, and the long-term shift is delayed. If Fox stumbles politically or financially, moderates in the family could push hard for change sooner — maybe even pre the inevitable Rupert demise — to protect the value of the empire.