–Updates to correct Bloomberg’s mistake — the proposed flexibility proposed today is for about 30% of the 2040 target, not 3%
Opinion by Mathew Carr
July 2, 2025 — It’s admirable that the EU is pushing for a 90% emissions reduction by 2040 (vs 1990 levels) in the face of hostile President Donald Trump of the USA.
The proposal was published today.
Bloomberg reported earlier that a key risk-reduction strategy of taking such an ambitious target is use of UN carbon credits to meet part of the target.
Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s climate commissioner, toured capitals to drum up support for a 90% net emissions-cutting goal that scientists say is the minimum for the bloc to meet its climate obligations. …The Solution ….
Hoekstra’s solution rests on countries being able to use cheaper [cheaper than what, EU carbon? CARRZEE] United Nations-administered international carbon offsets to meet around 3% of the 2040 target. Yet it’s unclear how exactly that will work, especially after a previous experiment with international credits under the Kyoto Protocol proved a disaster.
[Actually, the 3% is measured against actual EU emissions in 1990 — a much bigger number, than the target in 2040…Bloomberg was misinformed, or misunderstood …or the EU changed its mind bigtime the past few weeks.]
CarrZee: 3% is clearly inadequate and leaves EU taxpayers unfairly exposed to reputational risk for their climate leadership. Even 30% flexibility is too risky.
I would suggest the EU should be allowed to meet its target 50% with carbon credits — in case of not-predicted natural and unnatural jumps in emissions …such as feedback loops, massive potential collapses of nature, food production, sea-level rise.
This would mean Europe could still meet its target, even if its actual emissions are running 50% above the target level. This would also add to demand for credits and push up their price …incentivising “emission reduction creation”.
This would also boost carbon finance money for emerging nations and incentivise global climate justice (the west has been stealing poor-country carbon budgets for years).
So-called political leaders globally have delayed effective climate action for 35 years and this means targets set in 2025 need to be much more flexible than if climate action had been rational and consistently clamping down on heat-trapping emissions during the past few decades.
Europe has been screwed for its ethical leadership by the USA ….because the US interests (funds, companies) have grabbed European assets while crying “go woke go broke” to push down the value of clean European assets.
European “leaders” are too pathetic to call out this bad behavior.
China is showing some signs of climate leadership …pushing for multilateralism without the USA.
(Added Bloomberg’s mistake, earlier added clarity on what I mean by 50%)
NOTES
Cleverly, EU is currently distributing money partly generated from its carbon market …its selling of carbon allowances. It’s showcasing the benefits of Europe’s climate transition for taxpayers. That will encourage EU leaders to endorse the tight 2040 target.
Member States will also receive additional Recover and Resilience Facility (RRF) grants of €17.3 billion financed under the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Not all the money for RRF comes from the EU carbon market.
For example: Press release Jul 1, 2025 (yesterday) Brussels 2 min read
Commission endorses positive preliminary assessment of Italy’s seventh payment request for €18.3 billion under NextGenerationEU
Today, the Commission has endorsed a positive preliminary assessment of all 64 milestones and targets linked to Italy’s seventh payment request for €18.3 billion (€4.6 billion in grants and €13.7 billion in loans) under the Recovery and Resilience Facility, the centrepiece of NextGenerationEU.
The payment request covers important steps in the delivery of 10 reforms and 46 investments that will drive positive change for citizens and businesses in Italy in the areas of justice, public administration, public procurement, competition, waste management, cybersecurity and digitalisation of public administration, climate adaptation, renewable energy, energy poverty, sustainable transport, agriculture, scholarships at graduate and post-graduate level.
Flagship measures in this payment request include:
- Boosting competition and transparency: Italy adopted its new Annual Competition Law 2023, which includes measures aimed at increasing competition, efficiency and quality of services in several sectors, including highways. Key changes include a shift to public tender procedures as the default method for awarding concessions, with in-house assignments only allowed in exceptional and justified cases; increased oversight and control of these procedures by the Ministry of Infrastructure, and a more transparent system for setting tariffs and ensuring adequate service levels.
- Improved Accessibility for Southern Italy’s Railway Passengers: 10 railway stations in Southern Italy, includingGiovinazzo, Milazzo, Macomer, Vibo Valenzia-Pizzo, Vasto San Salvo, were renovated to improve accessibility for passengers with disabilities and reduced mobility.
- Increase renewable energy distribution: the installation of new primary substations, the modernisation of existing substations, and the reinforcement of distribution lines, has added 1,848 MW of capacity to the network, enhancing the grid’s ability to distribute renewable energy.
Next steps
The Commission has now sent its preliminary assessment of Italy’s fulfilment of the milestones and targets required for this payment to the Economic and Financial Committee (EFC), which has four weeks to deliver its opinion. The payment to Italy can take place following the EFC’s opinion, and the adoption of a payment decision by the Commission.
Background
The Italian recovery and resilience plan includes a total of 614 milestones and targets, 67 reforms and 150 investments in six thematic areas (the so-called “Missions”). The plan will be supported by €194.4 billion, €71.8 billion in grants and €122.6 billion in loans.
To date, the Commission has disbursed about 63% of the funds allocated to Italy under the Recovery and Resilience Facility, i.e. over EUR 122 billion. This includes pre-financing of €9 billion in grants and €15.9 billion in loans disbursed on 13 August 2021, two payments each worth €21 billion on 13 April 2022 and 8 November 2022, a third one worth €18.5 billion on 9 October 2023, a fourth one worth €16.5 billion on 29 December 2023, a fifth one worth €11 billion on 5 August 2024, a sixth one worth €8.7 billion on 23 December 2024 and RepowerEU prefinancing of EUR 551.2 million.
An interactive map providing examples of reforms and investments supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility is available online.
For more information
Commission’s preliminary assessment of Italy’s seventh payment request
Italy’s Recovery and Resilience plan
Plan overview, full plan and all other related documents
Recovery and Resilience Facility
Recovery and Resilience Facility project map
Recovery and Resilience Scoreboard
Recovery and Resilience Facility Regulation
Climate-action lobby group E3G pushes the EU to not delay 2040 target
Unedited from June 30:
European Commission must not further delay 2040 climate target and ambitious NDC
The stakes are high for the EU in terms of its leadership in the global economic transition. 10 years on, the Paris Agreement has galvanized cooperation and lowered climate risks, delivering security and economic benefits for Europe along the way. Now it is time for the EU to demonstrate that it is still in, with a science-based 2040 climate target ahead of key international dialogues.
- On 2 July, the European Commission is expected to present its proposal for a 2040 net emissions reduction target. Its own Impact Assessment and the scientific advice of the ESABCC recommend a domestic target of at least -90%, which is feasible and necessary to reach net-zero in 2050 and boost the EU’s competitiveness.
- Major business and investor voices have called for a 90% net emissions reduction target to provide much-needed investor certainty.
- In addition to its domestic 2040 target, the EU needs to adopt an ambitious 2035 target as part of its Nationally Determined Contribution ahead of COP30 ahead of the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Ambition Summit in September. As a signatory of the Paris Agreement, the EU is accountable for updating its NDC in line with the agreement’s five-year cycle and progression requirements. These commitments are not just political signals, but obligations under international law and vital contributions to global climate safety.
- With the US having previously withdrawn from and only recently rejoined the Agreement, the EU’s level of ambition continues to shape not only expectations but also the actions and commitments of major emitters and international partners. Basing the updated NDC on an adopted, science-based 2040 target would significantly enhance its legitimacy within the UNFCCC process.
- With over a year of delay based on the timeframe set by the European Climate Law, the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU is committed to promptly advance the negotiations despite little time left before COP30.
QUOTES
Manon Dufour, Executive Director, E3G Brussels said:
“Europe’s clean economy is driving growth – powering over a quarter of it. As capital exits the US over rising risks perceptions, the EU could position itself as a safe haven for sustainable investment. But to seize this moment, Europe must show it is sticking to the plan. The 2040 climate target is a crucial signal amid the noise of rollbacks and delays.”
Elisa Giannelli, Programme Lead for EU Politics and Climate Governance, E3G Brussels said:
“At the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement and with climate impacts intensifying, hesitation is not an option. EU’s political credibility and clarity are both at stake—investors, businesses, and citizens expect predictability. The Danish Presidency, the European Commission and the Member States will need to negotiate quickly, and in the spirit of sincere cooperation, to deliver a deal that reaffirms the EU’s commitment to decarbonisation, the cornerstone of its competitiveness, before COP this year.”
Steffen Menzel, Programme Lead for Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics, E3G Berlin said:
“The EU has long been a champion of the international climate regime – and can take pride in the Paris Agreement’s impact. Ten years on, global climate risks have been cut substantially: projected warming has halved, from over 5°C to around 2.5°C today, thanks to collective action the EU helped shape. A science-based 2040 target must form the foundation of a credible and ambitious 2035 NDC – one that sets a benchmark for other major emitters, reassures citizens and industry, and signals to international partners that Europe is honouring its international commitments.”