Mathew Carr

US sanctions were already hurting Iran’s crude oil exports to China (maybe), then US proxy Israel sent missiles [2]

Reporting and opinion By Mathew Carr

June 15, 2025 — Iran gets much, if not most, of its oil revenue from China ….so I’m asking the question ….is this latest violence another attempt by the USA to extend its illegitimate and reckless dominance over the world?

Reckless, violent American behavior as President Trump pretends to be peacemaking.

Pure oil price manipulation.

Grok unchecked:

Reuters + CarrZee:

Now Israel oil refineries are on fire, reducing supply so stoking oil prices as we come out of the weekend into a G7 —-that is the real pressure point….global inflation…..plus to distract the G7 from climate action.

It could even be Iran, US, Israel …the petroleum states in cahoots working against the world’s people ….yet again.

Are the people putting up with this?

No. Let’s not.

https://apple.news/AUc86sWnbRDGwcoTZc3nVLg

Grok: To chart Iran’s oil exports to China, I’ll use available data from the provided web and X post references, focusing on the most recent and reliable figures. The data primarily covers 2023 to 2025, with specific monthly and yearly estimates of Iran’s crude oil exports to China, measured in barrels per day (bpd). I’ll create a line chart to show the trend over time, using key data points from 2023 and 2024, and early 2025 where available. Since exact monthly data for every month is incomplete, I’ll aggregate and estimate based on reported averages and specific months highlighted in the sources.

Data Compilation:

  • 2023 Average: Iran exported approximately 1.29 million bpd to China, with around 90% of its total oil exports going to China.
  • October 2023: Exports reached over 1.8 million bpd, a record high for the period, driven by destocking from floating storage.
  • December 2023: Iran’s total crude oil exports were 1.322 million bpd, with China taking the majority (estimated at ~1.19 million bpd, assuming 90%).
  • First Quarter 2024: Iran exported an average of 1.56 million bpd, nearly all to China (~1.4 million bpd).
  • March 2024: Exports to China hit 1.71–1.91 million bpd, with Vortexa reporting 1.8 million bpd and Kpler estimating 1.71 million bpd.
  • October 2024: Exports dropped to ~1.46 million bpd (based on a 340,000 bpd decline from September’s higher levels).
  • First Eight Months of 2024: Iran’s total exports averaged 1.5 million bpd, with China taking ~1.35 million bpd (90%).
  • March 2025: Exports to China reached 1.91 million bpd, a record high.
  • May 2025: Exports fell to ~1.1 million bpd due to tighter U.S. sanctions and refinery maintenance.

For the chart, I’ll use yearly averages for 2023 and 2024, supplemented by specific monthly data points for October 2023, March 2024, October 2024, March 2025, and May 2025 to highlight fluctuations. Where exact figures for China are unavailable, I’ll estimate based on the 90% share of Iran’s total exports going to China, as consistently reported.

Chart Data:

  • 2023 (Yearly Average): ~1.29 million bpd
  • October 2023: 1.8 million bpd
  • 2024 (Yearly Average): ~1.4 million bpd
  • March 2024: 1.8 million bpd (using Vortexa’s figure for consistency)
  • October 2024: ~1.46 million bpd
  • March 2025: 1.91 million bpd
  • May 2025: 1.1 million bpd

Chart:

{ "type": "line", "data": { "labels": ["2023 Avg", "Oct 2023", "2024 Avg", "Mar 2024", "Oct 2024", "Mar 2025", "May 2025"], "datasets": [{ "label": "Iran Oil Exports to China (Million BPD)", "data": [1.29, 1.8, 1.4, 1.8, 1.46, 1.91, 1.1], "borderColor": "#1E90FF", "backgroundColor": "rgba(30, 144, 255, 0.2)", "fill": false, "tension": 0.4 }] }, "options": { "scales": { "y": { "beginAtZero": false, "title": { "display": true, "text": "Million Barrels per Day" }, "min": 0.8, "max": 2.2 }, "x": { "title": { "display": true, "text": "Time" } } }, "plugins": { "legend": { "display": true }, "title": { "display": true, "text": "Iran Crude Oil Exports to China (2023–2025)" } } } }

Notes:

  • The chart shows a general upward trend in Iran’s oil exports to China from 2023 to early 2025, peaking in March 2025 at 1.91 million bpd, followed by a sharp decline in May 2025 due to U.S. sanctions and refinery maintenance.
  • Data gaps were filled by estimating China’s share at 90% of Iran’s total exports, aligning with multiple sources.
  • The line chart uses a blue color scheme (#1E90FF) for visibility on both light and dark themes, with a slight curve (tension: 0.4) for smoother transitions.
  • Sources like Vortexa and Kpler provide robust tracking data, but discrepancies exist (e.g., 1.71 vs. 1.8 million bpd for March 2024). I used Vortexa’s figures where possible for consistency.
  • The chart does not account for potential underreporting by China or covert shipping tactics (e.g., “dark fleet” tankers), which may affect accuracy.

This chart provides a clear visual of Iran’s oil export trends to China, reflecting the impact of sanctions, market dynamics, and geopolitical factors. If you need a different chart type or more granular data, let me know!

Gemini ai unchecked ….seems similar to grok….

Tracking Iran’s oil exports to China can be complex due to the ongoing US sanctions and various methods used to circumvent them. However, here’s a summary of recent data and trends:
General Trends and Key Points:

  • China is Iran’s primary oil buyer: Despite sanctions, China remains the largest, and in some analyses, almost exclusive, destination for Iranian oil exports. In 2023, China imported an average of 1.2 million barrels of oil per day from Iran, with this figure reportedly increasing to 1.38 million bpd in the first half of 2024. Some reports indicate China’s share of Iranian oil exports reached over 90% in 2024.
  • Fluctuating volumes: Export volumes can fluctuate due to increased US pressure, logistical challenges, and market dynamics (e.g., refining margins in China). For example:
  • March 2025: China’s crude oil imports from Iran reportedly hit a high of 1.91 million bpd in March 2025, according to Platts data, and over 1.8 million bpd according to Vortexa.
  • May 2025: Flows reportedly dropped to just over 1.1 million bpd in May 2025, a 20% drop year-on-year, as tighter US sanctions and refinery maintenance weighed on flows.
  • January 2025: Deliveries to China fell below 850,000 bpd in January 2025, compared to over 1.8 million bpd in October 2024.
  • February 2025: Exports were expected to surge to 1.74 million bpd in February, an 86% increase from January, as logistical challenges were resolved.
  • “Teapot” refiners: A significant portion (around 90%) of Iran’s oil exports to China goes to small, independent Chinese refineries known as “teapots.” These refineries are less susceptible to direct US sanctions on larger state-owned enterprises.
  • Underreporting and circumvention: Official Chinese customs data often underreports imports of Iranian oil, as sanctioned shipments are often disguised as originating from other countries (e.g., Malaysia) or through ship-to-ship transfers and alternative terminals.
  • Economic implications: This trade is crucial for Iran’s economy, providing significant revenue despite sanctions. China benefits from discounted Iranian oil.
    Useful Links for Data and Analysis:
  • Iran International – Iran crude oil flows to China drop as sanctions bite: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202506049019 (Provides recent data and analysis on the impact of sanctions)
  • Kpler – China backs off peak Iranian crude buys, but a steep drop looks unlikely: https://www.kpler.com/blog/china-backs-off-peak-iranian-crude-buys-but-a-steep-drop-looks-unlikely (Offers insights from a major ship-tracking firm)
  • **IranOilGas Network – China’s crude oil imports from Iran hit 1.91 Mln bpd in March: Platts: https://www.iranoilgas.com/news/details.aspx?id=27479&title=China%E2%80%99s+crude+oil+imports+from+Iran+hit+1.91+Mln+bpd+in+March%3A+Platts (Reports on March 2025 import figures)
  • INSS – Growing but Limited: Iranian Economic Relations with China: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/china-iran-economy/ (Provides a broader overview of economic relations, including oil trade volumes over time)
  • United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) – Uncovering the Chinese Purchasers of Iranian Oil: https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/uncovering-chinese-purchasers-of-iranian-oil (Detailed information on specific refiners and vessels involved in the trade)
    These sources offer various perspectives and data points, often using ship-tracking information to estimate actual volumes, as official figures can be misleading due to sanctions evasion.

Comments, criticism my way to mathew@carrzee.net

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