April 24-25, 2025 — CarrZee: inflation will be much worse than the IMF now says if Trump persists with trade war. Ie even worse than its gloomier outlook.
Yes inflation will fall at a slower pace.
For normal people….inflation is much more important than growth. It’s mainly billionaires who care about growth, because they seek to rip a % of that extra money for themselves.
We don’t need additional unsustainable production…we need more of the sustainable production ….and less of the economics that hurts nature, climate and society.
Key bit from IMF for 2025 year I think:
US consumers hurt while China ones helped (arguably a good thing because Americans buy too much and Chinese not enough)
“We also raised our US inflation forecast by about 1 percentage point, up from 2 percent.
“For trading partners, tariffs are mostly a negative demand shock, driving foreign customers away from their products, even if some countries can benefit from the trade diversion. Consistent with this deflationary impulse, we have lowered our China growth forecast for this year to 4 percent, a 0.6 percentage point reduction, and inflation is revised down by about 0.8 percentage point.”
ChatGPT Summary
In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) released this week, the IMF modestly raised its global headline inflation projections relative to its January update—by about 0.1 percentage point for each of the next two years. It now expects global inflation to decelerate more slowly, at 4.3% in 2025 (up from roughly 4.2%) and 3.6% in 2026 (up from about 3.5%).
Reuters…The IMF said inflation was expected to decline more slowly than expected in January, given the impact of tariffs, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with “notable” upward revisions for the U.S. and other advanced economies.
April WEO: Headline Inflation Revisions
2025 forecast: 4.3% (up by 0.1 pp from January) 2026 forecast: 3.6% (up by 0.1 pp from January) The WEO summary states that “global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slightly slower pace than what was expected in January” . An IMF blog note confirms this across-the-board upward tweak: “Global inflation is revised up by about 0.1 percentage point for each year” .
Context and Drivers of the Upward Revision
Tariff-induced supply shocks A surge in U.S. tariffs since February has raised production costs and passed through into higher consumer prices globally. Policy-induced uncertainty Elevated unpredictability in trade and macro policies has prompted firms to hoard inventories and push through price increases, slowing disinflation. Higher inflation in advanced economies The IMF also noted that its inflation forecast for advanced economies was bumped up by 0.4 pp on average, with the U.S. up by 1.0 pp, underscoring that the upward revision was not confined to a few outliers.
Bottom Line
While the upward tweak is modest, it signals that disinflationary momentum has lost a bit of steam in the face of renewed trade-policy shocks and uncertainty. The IMF’s recalibration will inform central banks and fiscal authorities evaluating the balance between supporting growth and anchoring inflation expectations.
