Reporting and opinion by Mathew Carr
April 12-14, 2025 — I fell asleep on the couch in London Friday evening after dealing with yet another flailing United Nations press conference on saving the climate.
The occasion was the International Maritime Organization’s meeting this week on the banks of the Thames River in London — where envoys tried to get each other to help zero out the increasingly devastating climate impact of global consumption and trade.
Upon waking Saturday, I decided to scour the interweb to see if anyone cared enough to make a market bet or two on the IMO “decision,” as it was playing out. It was “agreed” by roughly half the world’s nations, I understand. The US abandoned the talks.
There’s little evidence of a turning point in the global climate crisis …but we might actually be right there in the valley of near-climate death.
The only way is up.
The agreement by about 100 of the world’s nations at the IMO Friday (see below for superficial press release that was not available earlier Friday ahead of the 4.30pm press conference):
–should see carbon dioxide emission prices of about $100 a ton for shipping companies by 2028 …or even $380 …yet these prices are tentative and subject to further negotiation in October and beyond.
Still, surely traders would have bid up the price of carbon assets around the world late in the week as this negotiation was happening — because the talks display evidence of at least SOME global climate collaboration in the Trump era, right? … and since all carbon allowances and credits are related because they indicate much-needed emission cuts, right?
No.
The EU carbon price, the best traded in the world, did advance roughly 4.7% on Friday to 65.06 euros a ton.
Friday View
This was from low levels brought on by President Donald Trump’s push to brutally remake the global world order even more in favor of America (while pretending to be a victim).
Here’s a three-month view:
This latest price Friday is the equivalent of $74.
I guess, trying for a “positive-ish spin,” if we assume an extra $10 each year for each of the next three years … as the global billionaire elites continue to use inflation to steal from mums, dads and kids around the world … we are in the right ballpark, at least for $100 a ton in 2028.
On the other hand, in California, the March 2026 contract of the 2029 future (!?) dropped to a record low of $27.59 a ton on Friday, roughly a quarter of the $100. (It’s not really a traded price but one set by trader committee — an indicated price).
This assessment may indicate a lack in confidence in carbon …or at least in this state program.
This is accurate, according to story published Saturday. See this.
https://apple.news/Aockn7EZbO8KyuC-9elvUdg
A positive spin is ….that California “price” indicates that the market hopes the Trump administration is holding out for something better than Friday’s IMO deal (my Mantra on this? — meditate to the chant Howard Lutnick, Howard Lutnick, Howard Lutnick of CantorCO2e fame, now Trump’s commerce secretary).
California’s market is doomed because a global carbon price is secretly coming!?
Brent crude rose Friday, because the UN is so flacid when it comes to market making, so far at least.
I could not find evidence of a surge in the price of clean fuels this week that now may be increasingly demanded by shipping companies if the IMO deal has legs.
Yet if clean fuel really is a thing, why is crude oil doing well Friday? (Because clean fuel is not really a thing, yet.)
And, even here, there is another ray of hope.
The drop in crude oil prices in recent weeks does leave some scope to boost carbon prices globally without hurting folks too much via another brutal and reckless new inflation round.
Conclusion
So the bottom line is …the IMO “deal” will probably be tweaked substantially before it sees light of day in 2028.
I bothered … and don’t completely regret it.
Comments to mathew@carrzee.net
(Updated with California link, more to come)
Source doc followed by notes
IMO approves net-zero regulations for global shipping
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- IMO approves net-zero regulations for global shipping
Draft regulations will set mandatory marine fuel standard and GHG emissions pricing for shipping to address climate change.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has achieved another important step towards establishing a legally binding framework to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships globally, aiming for net-zero emissions by or around, i.e close to 2050.
The IMO Net-zero Framework is the first in the world to combine mandatory emissions limits and GHG pricing across an entire industry sector.
Approved by the Marine Environment Protection Committee during its 83rd session (MEPC 83) from 7–11 April 2025, the measures include a new fuel standard for ships and a global pricing mechanism for emissions.
These measures, set to be formally adopted in October 2025 before entry into force in 2027, will become mandatory for large ocean-going ships over 5,000 gross tonnage, which emit 85% of the total CO2 emissions from international shipping.
Closing the meeting, IMO Secretary-General Mr. Arsenio Dominguez commended the spirit of cooperation and commitment demonstrated by Member States this week. He stated:
“The approval of draft amendments to MARPOL Annex VI mandating the IMO net-zero framework represents another significant step in our collective efforts to combat climate change, to modernize shipping and demonstrates that IMO delivers on its commitments.
“Now, it is important to continue working together, engaging in dialogue and listening to one another, if we are to create the conditions for successful adoption.”
Key elements of the IMO Net-Zero Framework
The IMO Net-Zero Framework will be included in a new Chapter 5 of Annex VI (Prevention of air pollution from ships) to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL).
MARPOL Annex VI currently has 108 Parties, covering 97% of the world’s merchant shipping fleet by tonnage, and already includes mandatory energy efficiency requirements for ships.
The goal is to achieve the climate targets set out in the 2023 IMO Strategy on the Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships, accelerate the introduction of zero and near zero GHG fuels, technologies and energy sources, and support a just and equitable transition.
Under the draft regulations, ships will be required to comply with:
- Global fuel standard: Ships must reduce, over time, their annual greenhouse gas fuel intensity (GFI) – that is, how much GHG is emitted for each unit of energy used. This is calculated using a well-to-wake approach.
- Global economic measure: Ships emitting above GFI thresholds will have to acquire remedial units to balance its deficit emissions, while those using zero or near-zero GHG technologies will be eligible for financial rewards.
Ensuring compliance
There will be two levels of compliance with GHG Fuel Intensity targets: a Base Target and a Direct Compliance Target at which ships would be eligible to earn “surplus units”.
Ships that emit above the set thresholds can balance their emissions deficit by:
- Transferring surplus units from other ships;
- Using surplus units they have already banked;
- Using remedial units acquired through contributions to the IMO Net-Zero Fund.
IMO Net-Zero Fund
The IMO Zet-Zero Fund will be established to collect pricing contributions from emissions. These revenues will then be disbursed to:
- Reward low-emission ships;
- Support innovation, research, infrastructure and just transition initiatives in developing countries;
- Fund training, technology transfer and capacity building to support the IMO GHG Strategy; and
- Mitigate negative impacts on vulnerable States, such as Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries.
Next steps
Upon approval, the draft amendments to MARPOL Annex VI will be formally circulated to IMO Member States, followed by:
- October 2025 (MEPC/ES.2): Adoption of the amendments during an extraordinary session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee.
- Spring 2026 (MEPC 84): Approval of detailed implementation guidelines.
- 2027: Expected entry into force, 16 months after adoption (in accordance with MARPOL articles).
Other MEPC 83 outcomes
The meeting discussed a range of issues related to protecting the marine environment from shipping activities, with the following key outcomes:
- Adoption of 2025 Action Plan to combat marine plastic litter;
- Progress in the review of the Ballast Water Management Convention;
- Approval of a proposal to designate the North-East Atlantic as an Emission Control Area and agreement in principle to designate two new Particularly Sensitive Sea Areas off South America’s Pacific coast;
- Approval of the draft Work plan on the development of a regulatory framework for the use of Onboard Carbon Capture Storage systems (OCCS)
- Approval of draft amendments to regulation 27 of MARPOL Annex VI regarding accessibility of the IMO Data Collection System
- Adoption of amendments to the 2021 Guidelines on the operational carbon intensity reduction factors relative to reference lines (CII reduction factors guidelines, G3)
- Approval of a new output to develop a legally binding framework on biofouling management, to prevent the spread of harmful invasive aquatic species
A full meeting summary will be provided soon.
Links
- View photo gallery and download b-roll
- Secretary-General’s opening remarks/closing remarks
- MEPC 83 meeting preview
- Watch a video IMO GHG Strategy
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