US net zero to be delayed 10 years to 2060 (matching China) — survey of 250 climate experts in about 20 countries after Donald Trump won second term.
Global net zero delayed to 2070s (rather than 2050s): Jakob Thomae, Head of Research, IPR (see below).
Temperatures to rise extra 0.2C to 2C (with 2/3 probability)… (Thomae).
This is a truly shocking situation, with USA backsliding at the wrong time amid serious increases in the pace of temperature rise and the speed of sea-level rise.
“It’s bad news,” said Sean Kidney, CEO, Climate Bonds Initiative. “The forest stuff is scary as hell. The numbers are ugly, ugly, ugly.”
Indonesia would reforest with carbon prices around the level of EU ETS, he said. “There is room for hope, still.”
Survey scope shows there are a wide range of views …so don’t read too much into this middleish view.
Emerging markets will be under much more climate pressure, risk of catastrophe.
EU carbon futures (etc) may rise on this (CarrZee) — not investment advice….because if the US goes slower on climate action and it’s most responsible for global warming, then there is an increased risk that other countries will tone down their ambition to cut emissions and things like carbon markets may need to do more of the climate-protecting work.
Chart shows decelerations in US, Vietnam, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina
In this webinar, Principles for Responsible Investment and the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) will present the IPR 2025 Transition Forecast, informed by input from several hundred international climate and policy experts. Undertaken post the US election, the forecast will provide investors and policy makers with the latest assessments from IPR on the current and expected pace of climate, land use and nature-related transition in G20+ nations, and outlooks to 2030 & 2050. Confirmed Speakers: Jakob Thomae, Head of Research, IPR Jennifer Anderson, Managing Director, Global Head of Sustainable Investment and ESG, Lazard Asset Management Sean Kidney, CEO, Climate Bonds Initiative Moderated by: Daniel Gallagher, Senior Lead, Climate Change, PRI
(Corrected earlier version to Principles FOR Responsible Investment)
[…] — why Trump is the one who really needs the India trade deal!) Hint it’s about the fast depleting global carbon budget and prospect of even higher temperatures and more climate chaos. It’s still highly […]