Opinion and reporting by Mathew Carr
Sept. 7, 2024 — The crude oil market might be at a crossroads next week.
Is the climate transition making it harder for OPEC to keep oil prices high? We will find out Tuesday with data from China, which is going big on electric vehicles.
Big price falls for near-term futures (2024-2027) were not matched in the far end of the curve…with the 2030 contract actually rising.
Right now the market is gathering around the $70 a barrel level for each of the next six years. To me, this indicates futures traders are ruling out prices around $40 or $50 in 2030, even if the climate transition goes faster.
This is surprising and perhaps a denial of reality. Yet, even Exxon and BP diverge tremendously on global oil demand in 2050 …so perhaps it’s not that surprising.
Commerzbank/FXStreet:
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-oil-falls-by-more-than-10-last-week-commerzbank-202409061448
2 year charts
Intraday
Prices could crash more early next week, especially if the China data shows lower-than-expected demand:
Elliott Wave analysis: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-hits-downside-target-video-202409061719
Neerav Yadav
50 Eyes Market Analysis
Oil hits downside target [Video]
ANALYSIS | 09/06/2024 17:19:43 GMT
It will be interesting to see if near-term prices fall below those expected in 2030.