UNEP claims 2030 emissions gap is narrowing; I’m not convinced because the NDC process is failing

Reporting and opinion by Mathew Carr

Nov. 20, 2023 — Reading this year’s UN Environment Program emissions gap report makes me regret not analysing last year’s report more carefully.

Unconditional climate contributions by countries offering them in the UN will result in emissions of about 55 billion tons of emissions (co2 equivalent) in 2030, according to the 2023 report. That’s 14 billion more than where they need to be (41 billion tons) to keep temperature below the 2C warming level, according to this year’s report.

2023 version

2022 version — is the 15 in the orange circle a mistake?

The 2023 version of the 2022 table above (sort of) gives the failing NDC process away

The 2023 table shows the gap is still 14 billion tons. Not sure why the 2022 version emphasised 15 billion tons. (55 billion and 41 billion remains the same.) There’s now one-less year to repair the situation, so it’s getting worse, not better.

Big countries, especially, are simply not updating their NDCs (nationally determined contributions) as often as they promised they would; when they do they are not ambitious enough; further, they are not legislating aggressively enough.

There is some evidence of new climate policy biting. Yet, the UK, US and China are arguably backtracking, for instance.

Companies are ready for the politicians to stop being so pathetic.

I contend the UNEP report authors should stop swapping and changing the metric points so comparisons are easier. Is the UNEP trying to confuse in order to hide the lack of climate action? Surely not! Just asking. Use mathew@carrzee.net for answers, opinions, comments, please (including UNEP).

Economist chart. Some emissions fall

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