EU carbon drops again Wednesday

Snip from an International Emissions Trading Association survey about carbon prices:

Allowance prices

European respondents expect EU Allowance (EUA) prices to average €84.40 between 2023 and 2025, compared to a current price of €85.50. This represents a 1.2% decrease in the predicted price to 2025 from last year’s survey.

California carbon allowance (CCA) prices are predicted to average €39.23 between 2023 and 2025, a drop of 10.3% from last year’s result, while values for RGA permits in the northeastern RGGI market are forecast to average $32.20, a decline of 18% from the 2022 survey’s forecast.

Prices in the UK ETS are expected to average £79.22 over the next two years, compared to £85.65 in last year’s poll. New Zealand participants predicted NZU prices will average NZ$45.00, down from NZ$51.43 a year ago.

Despite drops in short-term price expectations, the survey reflected expectations that prices will be higher in the period from 2026 to 2030, with EUAs forecast to average €100, CCAs at $51.54 and RGAs at $45.83.

“The results of the survey underline the resilience of the carbon markets, in particular compliance markets, to the economic and geopolitical shocks that it has experienced over the last 20 years,” said Dirk Forrister, CEO and President of IETA.

CarrZee: Not sure I agree with Mr Forrister, despite wide respect for him. If the markets were resilient then prices would be higher and price expectations would be going up, not down.