BP’s 1Q result offers glimmers of hope for climate transition; 2GW of electrolysis?

First quarter results were published today.

In low carbon energy, bp has signed an agreement to take a 40% stake in the Viking carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in the North Sea; three bp-led hydrogen and CCS projects in the north-east England have been chosen by the UK government to progress to the next stage of development; and bp has launched plans for a low-carbon green energy cluster in Spain’s Valencia region to include world-scale green hydrogen* production at bp’s Castellón refinery with up to 2GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030.

BP’s valuation of its Russian business: zero

How BP’s results are a bit fantastic — or at least heavily qualified:

Just read its “cautionary statement” (Unedited – formatting weirdness is down to BP’s PDF I think):

In order to utilize the ‘safe harbor’ provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the ‘PSLRA’) and

the general doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary statement:

The discussion in this results announcement contains certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements – that is,

statements related to future, not past events and circumstances – with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and

businesses of bp and certain of the plans and objectives of bp with respect to these items. These statements may generally, but not

always, be identified by the use of words such as ‘will’, ‘expects’, ‘is expected to’, ‘aims’, ‘should’, ‘may’, ‘objective’, ‘is likely to’,

‘intends’, ‘believes’, ‘anticipates’, ‘plans’, ‘we see’ or similar expressions.

In particular, the following, among other statements, are all forward looking in nature: plans, expectations and assumptions regarding

oil and gas demand, supply, prices or volatility; expectations regarding upstream production and bp’s customers & products

business; expectations regarding refining margins; expectations regarding marketing margins and volumes; expectations regarding

turnaround activity; expectations regarding production from oil production & operations and from gas & low carbon energy;

expectations regarding bp’s business, financial performance, results of operations and cash flows; expectations regarding future

project start-ups; expectations with regards to bp’s transformation to an IEC; expectations regarding price assumptions used in

accounting estimates; bp’s plans and expectations regarding the amount and timing of share buybacks and quarterly and interim

dividends; plans and expectations regarding bp’s credit rating, including in respect of maintaining a strong investment grade credit

rating; plans and expectations regarding the allocation of surplus cash flow to share buybacks and strengthening the balance sheet;

plans and expectations with respect to the total depreciation, depletion and amortization and the other businesses & corporate

underlying annual charge for 2023; plans and expectations regarding the factors taken into account in setting the dividend per

ordinary share and buyback each quarter; plans and expectations regarding investments, collaborations and partnerships in electric

vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure; plans and expectations related to bp’s transition growth engines of bioenergy, convenience, EV

charging, renewables & power and hydrogen; plans and expectations regarding the amount or timing of payments related to

divestment and other proceeds, and the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments, including the amount

and timing of proceeds; expectations regarding the underlying effective tax rate for 2023; expectations regarding the timing and

amount of future payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; plans and expectations regarding capital expenditure, including

that capital expenditure will be $16-18 billion in 2023; expectations regarding legal proceedings, including those related to climate

change; plans and expectations regarding projects, joint ventures, partnerships, agreements and memoranda of understanding with

commercial entities and other third party partners.

By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances

that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of bp.

Actual results or outcomes, may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors,

including: the extent and duration of the impact of current market conditions including the volatility of oil prices, the effects of bp’s

plan to exit its shareholding in Rosneft and other investments in Russia, the impact of COVID-19, overall global economic and

business conditions impacting bp’s business and demand for bp’s products as well as the specific factors identified in the

discussions accompanying such forward-looking statements; changes in consumer preferences and societal expectations; the pace

of development and adoption of alternative energy solutions; developments in policy, law, regulation, technology and markets,

including societal and investor sentiment related to the issue of climate change; the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory

approvals; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages;

the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; future levels of

industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America and continued base oil and additive supply

shortages; OPEC+ quota restrictions; PSA and TSC effects; operational and safety problems; potential lapses in product quality;

economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability and economic growth in

relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations and policies, including related to climate change; changes

in social attitudes and customer preferences; regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the

nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts;

delays in the processes for

resolving claims; amounts ultimately payable and timing of payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; exchange rate

fluctuations; development and use of new technology; recruitment and retention of a skilled workforce; the success or otherwise of

partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, contractors, subcontractors, creditors, rating agencies and others; bp’s

access to future credit resources; business disruption and crisis management; the impact on bp’s reputation of ethical misconduct

and non-compliance with regulatory obligations; trading losses; major uninsured losses; the possibility that international sanctions or

other steps taken by any competent authorities or any other relevant persons may limit or otherwise impact, bp’s ability to sell its

interests in Rosneft, or the price for which bp could sell such interests; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse

weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism; cyberattacks

or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report, as well as those factors discussed under “Risk factors” in

bp’s Annual Report and Form 20-F 2022 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

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