By Mathew Carr
Oct. 1, 2021– London: Dutch natural gas, the European benchmark, dropped today from record levels, as we said might happen last night on CarrZee.org.
It did rise to 100 euros earlier today, after our report yesterday focussed on that level. See today’s dramatic intra-day chart for the shape of the fall (down more than 6%) and my Tweet, and after that, yesterday’s story, unedited:
Sept. 30, 2021 — This price surge feels like crazy panic buying. Then there was an amazing roller coaster ride on the last day of September.
Turns out China might have been the one buying, in part.
To recap: European gas went higher early today (98 euros / MWh) — record levels. See this chart:
Huge prices will dissuade fossil-fuel burning, speed the change from dirty to clean. Carbon prices slip: This is what I said earlier today …and see my Tweet.
When I said this above, I didn’t know about this below.
So by the end of the day, gas had had a wild ride. See this — it got close to 100 euros (I don’t have perfect data) — to 99 euros …then plunged, failing to reach that nice, round number (I think) …then recovered near the end of the day. See this:
In the morning, I said this below, and I think it still stands. If anyone can move prices, China can. Yet, China is famous for being frugal and sensible. So I still think this smells like a panic, sitting as I am, a little outside the market.
‘Before you hit the buy button, remember the Summer 2024 contract is about 25% of the value.‘
The Summer 2024 future stayed flat today. That might be a selling signal, because if anyone buys longterm, China’s multiple energy and manufacturing companies do (I have no inside knowledge).
I imagine losses in the gas market tomorrow.
(Updates with bearishness, China news; Earlier Adds charts, including Timera)