Also see this:
https://x.com/SallyBourliakas/status/2024862125181546568?s=20
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Here’s what the polling / latest indicators look like so far for the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election (scheduled for 26 February 2026, so official polling day is still ahead and there aren’t large, repeated constituency polls yet):
📊 Constituency-specific polling
Find Out Now (late Jan 2026) – one of the only constituency-specific surveys available so far (with a small sample):
Reform UK: ~36% Labour Party: ~33% Green Party: ~21% Conservatives: ~8% Lib Dems: ~3% (*Sample size was only ~143 people — so treat this with caution.)
Many commentators have referenced this same poll showing a tight three-way race with Reform slightly ahead, but as above the small sample and early timing limit how conclusive it is.
📈 Betting markets as a proxy for polling trends
Betting-market “odds” aren’t opinion polls but they often reflect how money and sentiment are shifting among supporters:
Latest odds (mid-Feb 2026):
Green Party – clear favourite with many bookmakers (implied ~60–70% in some markets) Reform UK – second-favourite (around ~20–30% implied in betting) Labour Party – significantly longer odds in many markets (single-digit or low-teens % implied) This reflects market expectations of a potential upset where Greens or Reform overtake Labour in a seat Labour previously held comfortably.
🗳 Interpretation
Real constituency polls are scarce — the only detailed one is the Find Out Now one (which showed Reform slightly ahead but with wide margins of error). Betting odds currently paint Greens as favourites, followed by Reform, with Labour trailing — but odds are not the same as direct opinion polling. Analysts warn that “shy” voters or turnout differences could change outcomes.
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Here’s the party-by-party result from the most recent election in the Gorton and Denton constituency — i.e. the 2024 UK general election (held on 4 July 2024) before the current by-election was called:
📊 Gorton and Denton – 2024 General Election Results
Party / Candidate
Votes
Vote Share
Labour and Co-operative (Andrew Gwynne)
18,555
50.8 %
Reform UK (Lee Moffitt)
5,142
14.1 %
Green Party (Amanda Gardner)
4,810
13.2 %
Workers Party of Britain (Amir Yousuf Burney)
3,766
10.3 %
Conservative Party (Ruth Welsh)
2,888
7.9 %
Liberal Democrats (John Reid)
1,399
3.8 %
Labour held the seat with a majority of about 13,413 votes, though with a reduced vote share compared to previous elections. Reform UK came second, followed by the Green Party in third place. Minor parties like the Workers Party of Britain also featured — notably above the Conservatives in this seat.