The recent increase in observed military aircraft flights to Europe, particularly US Air Force aerial refueling tankers (like KC-135 Stratotankers and KC-46 Pegasus) and support planes, stems from a major NATO exercise and ongoing security posture adjustments.

NATO Exercise: Steadfast Dart 2026

NATO launched Steadfast Dart 2026 on January 2, 2026—a large-scale joint deployment and reinforcement exercise focused on testing the rapid movement of forces to Europe’s eastern flank (including Germany and the Baltic Sea region). This involves air, sea, and land transports of personnel, equipment, and aircraft from contributing nations, including significant US contributions. Such exercises routinely feature heavy airlift and tanker support to enable long-range deployments and sustained operations.

Broader Context

No evidence points to an acute crisis like escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war or Middle East tensions driving these specific flights in early January 2026. Ongoing support for Ukraine continues via established hubs (e.g., in Poland and a new one planned in Romania), but the timing aligns more closely with the scheduled NATO drill.

Flight tracking data often shows spikes during these planned events, as military aircraft (especially tankers) cross the Atlantic to stage in European bases like Ramstein (Germany), Morón (Spain), or Mildenhall (UK).

These movements demonstrate NATO’s readiness and deterrence capabilities amid persistent regional tensions, but they remain part of routine, announced training rather than an emergency response.

The primary source for the information about increased military aircraft movements (especially US Air Force tankers and support planes) to Europe in early January 2026 is NATO’s official Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) exercises page, which lists ongoing and upcoming activities.

Specifically:

• Exercise Steadfast Dart 2026: A joint deployment and reinforcement exercise testing the rapid movement of forces (including air assets) to NATO’s Vigilance Area Centre (Germany and the Baltic Sea region). It began on January 2, 2026, and runs until March 18, 2026. Source: https://shape.nato.int/nato-exercises (updated as of December 15, 2025, confirming the dates and focus on deployment/reinforcement under peacetime conditions).

This exercise explains the observed spike in trans-Atlantic flights of refueling tankers (e.g., KC-135 and KC-46) and other support aircraft, as they enable long-range deployments to European bases like Ramstein (Germany), Mildenhall (UK), and others on the eastern flank.

No other major crisis-driven deployments were reported in early January 2026 searches; the timing aligns directly with this scheduled NATO drill for readiness and deterrence.