–Statement also fails to mention whether two nations will update their “nationally determined contributions” to the Paris climate deal this month; they are already 4 months late

By Mathew Carr (Corrects chart vs earlier version)

April 18, 2021 — LONDON: The two countries, the biggest climate polluters, held meetings on climate action.

The global pandemic has already delayed the COP26 UN climate meeting by a year. It’s meant to be happening in November in Glasgow.

Surging coronavirus infections across much of the world have spurred speculation that the talks will be delayed again.

Without a global climate deal, countries can ride for free on others’ efforts and engage in damaging brinkmanship, including ramping up production and use of fossil fuels, and burning of forests needed to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

UN climate envoys still disagree on several key issues as they strive to agree and install rules into the Paris climate deal that will pivot markets in favor of the climate.

1. Share of carbon trading proceeds sent to emerging countries for adaptation,
2. Corresponding adjustments to targets when making emission trades,
3. Transitioning Kyoto-era carbon credits into the Paris era …are still among issues flummoxing UN climate envoys.

UN negotiators are seeking to ENSURE the world’s markets better protect the climate. They’ve been trying and pretty much failing for 30 years.

Here is the China-U.S. joint statement, which fails to mention the timing of the showcase UN meeting:

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE

April 17, 2021

U.S.-China Joint Statement Addressing the Climate Crisis 

U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and China Special Envoy for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua met in Shanghai on April 15 and 16, 2021, to discuss aspects of the climate crisis. At the conclusion of the discussion, the two Special Envoys released the following joint statement. Begin text: 

1.  The United States and China are committed to cooperating with each other and with other countries to tackle the climate crisis, which must be addressed with the seriousness and urgency that it demands. This includes both enhancing their respective actions and cooperating in multilateral processes, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. Both countries recall their historic contribution to the development, adoption, signature, and entry into force of the Paris Agreement through their leadership and collaboration. 

2.  Moving forward, the United States and China are firmly committed to working together and with other Parties to strengthen implementation of the Paris Agreement. The two sides recall the Agreement’s aim in accordance with Article 2 to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees C. In that regard, they are committed to pursuing such efforts, including by taking enhanced climate actions that raise ambition in the 2020s in the context of the Paris Agreement with the aim of keeping the above temperature limit within reach and cooperating to identify and address related challenges and opportunities. 

3.  Both countries look forward to the US-hosted Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22/23. They share the Summit’s goal of raising global climate ambition on mitigation, adaptation, and support on the road to COP 26 in Glasgow. 

4.  The United States and China will take other actions in the short term to further contribute to addressing the climate crisis:

a.  Both countries intend to develop by COP 26 in Glasgow their respective long-term strategies aimed at net zero GHG emissions/carbon neutrality.
b.  Both countries intend to take appropriate actions to maximize international investment and finance in support of the transition from carbon-intensive fossil fuel based energy to green, low-carbon and renewable energy in developing countries.
c.  They will each implement the phasedown of hydrofluorocarbon production and consumption reflected in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.

5.  The United States and China will continue to discuss, both on the road to COP 26 and beyond, concrete actions in the 2020s to reduce emissions aimed at keeping the Paris Agreement-aligned temperature limit within reach, including:

a.  Policies, measures, and technologies to decarbonize industry and power, including through circular economy, energy storage and grid reliability, CCUS, and green hydrogen;
b.  Increased deployment of renewable energy;
c.  Green and climate resilient agriculture;
d.  Energy efficient buildings;
e.  Green, low-carbon transportation;
f.  Cooperation on addressing emissions of methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases;
g.  Cooperation on addressing emissions from international civil aviation and maritime activities; and
h.  Other near-term policies and measures, including with respect to reducing emissions from coal, oil, and gas.

6.  The two sides will cooperate to promote a successful COP 26 in Glasgow, aiming to complete the implementation arrangements for the Paris Agreement (e.g., under Article 6 and Article 13) and to significantly advance global climate ambition on mitigation, adaptation, and support. They will further cooperate to promote a successful COP 15 of the Convention on Biological Diversity in Kunming, noting the importance of the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, including its relevance to climate mitigation and adaptation.

**********Statement ends (I added emphasis)***********

China’s installing a carbon market in a bid to help cut emissions — that program may be oversupplied at the beginning. But the nation will risk missing its net-zero target for 2060 unless the program quickly gets strict under a tightening carbon cap, according to new analysis.

Carbon prices in the country’s planned national market are initially seen near zero by Matt Gray, who has analysed the country’s giant coal power industry and carbon market plans.

That’s because the market, which could become the world’s biggest, will be oversupplied based on the 2019-2020 allocation, Gray, Co-Founder and Co-CEO at TransitionZero, estimates:

Gray says there is opportunity for a dramatic decline, yet it is difficult to say how much of cuts will be incentivised by the market.

Here is the opportunity; Gray says these cuts are needed to hit China’s target:

The U.S. could agree to cut its emissions by 60% in the 25 years through 2030, according to a well-placed renewables expert.

The country’s current plan under the 2015 Paris climate deal is for a 26%-28% cut by 2025 vs 2005 levels.

A 50% drop by 2030 would not be a “big jump in ambition, to be honest with you. I personally think we should exceed 60% by 2030,” said Tim Williamson, an Obama renewable energy official who’s now interested in developing pumped-hydropower storage.

“That’s just me. I don’t know if the rest of the country is ready to go with the centralised, industrialized policy that pushes us forward. With industrial policy we can get to 60%.”

The nation, the world’s biggest economy, has already probably achieved its planned 17% emissions cut by 2020 from 2005 levels, partly because of the coronavirus pandemic. New policy is urgently required to stem what’s set to be a big rebound in emissions.

President Joe Biden’s infrastructure proposal would create a whole-of-country shift that follows what the EU has done for industry-by-industry planning and even combines some elements of China’s centralized, long-term thinking, Williamson said.

For instance, the U.S. could install windpower at a faster pace than planned by Biden, he said, citing Wood Mackenzie. This table from August indicates Biden’s plans for 30 GW by 2030 is only a little ahead of plans already locked in.

The chart outlines the economic impact of offshore wind activities as a result of potential Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) lease auctions 2020-2022.

Solar installations are another huge opportunity that might allow for a more ambitious 2030 emissions target stateside:

Without reducing GHGs 60% by 2030, it’s unlikely the U.S. can hit net zero by 2050, Williamson said.

The likely 50% reduction target (according to Williamson) approximates with that proposed by some environmental lobby groups.

(Corrects chart; updates with context; bottlenecks at climate talks; headline translation by Google translate)

NOTES:

China could get ambitious: http://carrzee.org/2021/04/15/chinas-carbon-market-seems-set-up-to-fail-yet-it-could-quickly-get-strict-analysis/

U.S. could get ambitious: http://carrzee.org/2021/04/05/u-s-can-achieve-60-emissions-cut-by-2030-former-obama-official/