ANALYSIS, REPORTING, PRESS SUMMARIES by Mathew Carr
[Updated after the end of Monday to explain why my prediction effort was mixed at best (at least initially).]
April 25, 2022 (LONDON): The importance of Macron’s win of the France presidential election can’t be overstated.
EU carbon allowances and natural gas prices are probably set to advance (perhaps strongly) on April 25 [see below for why this happened only briefly for gas — and why carbon fell] because Emmanuel Macron has shown how to win a political vote amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an acute climate crisis.
It’s partly about humility and his willingness to admit that the middle class and poorer folk have not been properly looked after by the political class.
He’s pro-climate protection, in favor of clever multilateralism and his win boosts the chance the USA and Australia will embrace policies that boost demand for natural gas and carbon futures.
The France election result, in a nation that is knowingly skeptical of elitists and globalisation, lowers the chance Donald Trump / the USA Republican Party wins in that nation’s mid-term elections.
The London, UK minimum does not rise above 9C through May 8 (though maximum is estimated at 20C on May 8).
European Dutch gas prices rose first thing Monday London time, before falling on wider market declines (China Covid concern was blamed by some media outlets).
EU carbon declined from its highest level for two months:
This from Redshaw Advisors on carbon’s drop:
Price Action: EUAs fell heavily today with the gloomy macroeconomic outlook, China’s COVID lockdown measures and Putin’s lack of desire for a diplomatic resolution weighing on wider markets. The entire day was spent in negative territory as EUAs gapped lower and fell, almost without pause, until mid-afternoon. Much like last week’s big move upwards, the bulk of the day’s move lower came on very low volumes as EUAs fell to €84 within the first four hours of trade. A weak auction contributed to the downside pressure. The declines did not end there as EUAs followed oil lower still in the afternoon. The final few hours of the day saw EUAs find a foothold with a small recovery emerging but despite the bounce, EUAs ended the day at €83.79, down €5 (5.6%).
Outlook: Today’s trading shows how unpredictable the markets are at present. The bulls ended last week in control but much of the upside has evaporated. It was one-way traffic lower today with the bears dominant. Industrial buying interest did emerge as the downside gathered momentum to shore up prices. From a technical point of view, €81.99 is a resistance-turned-support level with €82.30 protecting it. On the upside, the next resistance level is €84.18 then €86.22.
This from the Sun newspaper:
BRITAIN is set to feel the coldest May in 25 years according to weather experts as the mercury plummets following a hot end to April.
Talking to the Mirror, former BBC and Met Office meteorologist John Hammond says the UK’s weather “will go into reverse” this week.
He said: “The mercury will go into reverse, with a cooler trend to end April. Fresh waves of Arctic air mean a good chance, even across southern Britain, of temperatures falling close to or below freezing.”
EARLIER, on weather-related impacts, see this from the UK Express newspaper:
A split jet stream with one branch to the north of the UK and the other to the south will allow high pressure close to the UK to steer winds in across the North Sea.
“One of these is to the north of the UK, and the other over the Continent, and in between is a large area of high pressure.
“This will steer winds from Scandinavia, across the North Sea into Britain bringing a return to cool, and at times, cold weather.
“This is the picture for the next week to 10 days at least.”
Temperatures this week will widely plummet to freezing (Image: WX charts)
-7C windchill (Image: netweather)
Britons are warned to start wrapping up with morning frosts to return during the final days of the month [that is April, I think].
Other than the odd shower, no rain is forecast through the next 10 days as high pressure drives clear skies.
Mr Dale, author of Weather or Not? said: “One of the main features of the next week and beyond will be the lack of rain.
“This again is the result of high pressure keeping low pressure away from the UK.
“This is something gardeners and farmers may be starting to worry about at this time of year.”
Arctic air will sweep across Norway and Sweden pushing thermometers well below average for the time of year.
CarrZee: this cold weather could boost demand for near-commodity futures
Plus see this. 2C temp gain is now “common”. Faster global warming will require higher carbon prices:
(Updated early Tuesday London time)